Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold 76ers, while the market favors Pacers (51%). 5 of 15 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: 76ers (-7.5)

5 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold 76ers (33%) · 76ers at 50¢ · $44K held · ends Oct 28

76ers50¢Pacers50¢Ends Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

76ers

Consensus Traders

76ers 33%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$43.9K

Combined PnL

$-1.6K

Smart Money Entry

48.4¢ → 49.5¢

+2% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

Avoid76ers at 50%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

76ers

5 of 15 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Pacers 51%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

76ers50%

Pacers51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

76ers5 traders

Total Value$13.4K

Total Shares35,817

Combined PnL$-3.9K

Pacers10 traders

Total Value$14.3K

Total Shares22,059

Combined PnL+$2.3K

76ers — 33%Pacers — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Pacersavg 52.9¢	$15.9K	$15.7K	-$249.97	54% 16871-14147 (31018)
└ Pacers leg	Pacersavg 52.9¢	$9.6K	$9.1K	-$427.56
└ 76ers leg	76ersavg 48.2¢	$6.3K	$6.5K	+$177.6
MO mooseborzoiiCTR	76ersavg 48¢	$10.5K	$7.8K	$-2.7K	50% 1138-1132 (2270)
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542	Pacersavg 54¢	$5.4K	$6.5K	+$1.1K	47% 2409-2693 (5102)
FO forecastication4	Pacersavg 54¢	$2.8K	$3.3K	+$538.02	49% 1127-1157 (2284)
ComingBackCTR	76ersavg 49¢	$4.0K	$2.9K	$-1.1K	61% 3850-2418 (6268)
RollAwayTheDewCTR	76ersavg 49¢	$2.5K	$2.5K	+$24.72	52% 318-288 (606)
SU SunlineTicker	Pacersavg 54¢	$1.7K	$2.1K	+$339.12	62% 4022-2462 (6484)
HI hi774c	Pacersavg 53¢	$1.3K	$1.6K	+$228.68	52% 4656-4365 (9021)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989	Pacersavg 55¢	$550	$645	+$95	53% 5503-4847 (10350)
RN1ARB<$100	76ersavg 48.7¢	$544.2	$537.48	-$6.72	54% 55737-47824 (103561)
└ 76ers leg	76ersavg 48.7¢	$385.58	$392.04	+$6.46
└ Pacers leg	Pacersavg 55.1¢	$158.62	$145.44	-$13.18
BU BullishBarbCTR	76ersavg 48¢	$386.28	$285.69	-$100.59	38% 848-1408 (2256)
BO BoomLaLa	Pacersavg 52¢	$104	$129	+$25	53% 11467-9983 (21450)
SL slimjoe<$100	Pacersavg 54¢	$63.18	$75.47	+$12.29	51% 6452-6117 (12569)
GH ghorrock<$100	Pacersavg 53.7¢	$60.6	$34.01	-$1.28	57% 13150-10021 (23171)
NA NatoAlfista<$100	Pacersavg 51¢	$21.42	$27.09	+$5.67	50% 3716-3689 (7405)
0xheavy888<$100	Pacersavg 54.7¢	$16.4	$19.35	+$2.95	56% 6915-5530 (12445)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100	76ersavg 49¢	$24.5	$17.75	-$6.75	54% 2922-2511 (5433)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Pacers

Invested

$15,906.67

Value

$15.7K

PnL

-$249.97

Record

54%

16871-14147 (31018)

Both legs:

Pacers$9,558.2552.9¢-$427.56

76ers$6,348.4248.2¢+$177.6

mooseborzoiiCTR

76ers

Invested

$10,518.5

Value

$7.8K

PnL

$-2.7K

Record

50%

1138-1132 (2270)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542

Pacers

Invested

$5,400

Value

$6.5K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

47%

2409-2693 (5102)

forecastication4

Pacers

Invested

$2,766.96

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$538.02

Record

49%

1127-1157 (2284)

ComingBackCTR

76ers

Invested

$3,957

Value

$2.9K

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

61%

3850-2418 (6268)

RollAwayTheDewCTR

76ers

Invested

$2,460.19

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$24.72

Record

52%

318-288 (606)

SunlineTicker

Pacers

Invested

$1,736.49

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$339.12

Record

62%

4022-2462 (6484)

hi774c

Pacers

Invested

$1,327.15

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$228.68

Record

52%

4656-4365 (9021)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989

Pacers

Invested

$550

Value

$645

PnL

+$95

Record

53%

5503-4847 (10350)

RN1ARB<$100

76ers

Invested

$544.2

Value

$537.48

PnL

-$6.72

Record

54%

55737-47824 (103561)

Both legs:

76ers$385.5848.7¢+$6.46

Pacers$158.6255.1¢-$13.18

BullishBarbCTR

76ers

Invested

$386.28

Value

$285.69

PnL

-$100.59

Record

38%

848-1408 (2256)

BoomLaLa

Pacers

Invested

$104

Value

$129

PnL

+$25

Record

53%

11467-9983 (21450)

slimjoe<$100

Pacers

Invested

$63.18

Value

$75.47

PnL

+$12.29

Record

51%

6452-6117 (12569)

ghorrock<$100

Pacers

Invested

$60.6

Value

$34.01

PnL

-$1.28

Record

57%

13150-10021 (23171)

NatoAlfista<$100

Pacers

Invested

$21.42

Value

$27.09

PnL

+$5.67

Record

50%

3716-3689 (7405)

0xheavy888<$100

Pacers

Invested

$16.4

Value

$19.35

PnL

+$2.95

Record

56%

6915-5530 (12445)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100

76ers

Invested

$24.5

Value

$17.75

PnL

-$6.75

Record

54%

2922-2511 (5433)

Research grade

Avoid76ers at 50%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

76ers

5 of 15 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Pacers 51%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that 76ers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance51.7%

49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$93.24

Max Loss

-$100.00

193.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.