Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Pacers, while the market favors 76ers (54%). 11 of 18 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: 76ers (-6.5)

11 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold Pacers (61%) · Pacers at 47¢ · $29K held · ends Oct 28

76ers54¢Pacers46¢Ends Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Pacers

Consensus Traders

Pacers 61%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$29.5K

Combined PnL

-$465.22

Smart Money Entry

50.9¢ → 46.5¢

-9% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

AvoidPacers at 47%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Pacers

11 of 18 top traders (61%)Underdog side (market favors 76ers 54%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

76ers54%

Pacers47%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Pacers11 traders

Total Value$17.5K

Total Shares29,375

Combined PnL+$1.1K

76ers7 traders

Total Value$11.9K

Total Shares26,027

Combined PnL$-1.6K

Pacers — 61%76ers — 39%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Pacersavg 51.1¢	$7.9K	$8.3K	+$337.74	54% 16871-14147 (31018)
RJ RJW1	76ersavg 52¢	$9.1K	$7.8K	$-1.3K	42% 94-130 (224)
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR	Pacersavg 50.8¢	$6.1K	$6.7K	+$560	47% 2409-2693 (5102)
SU SunlineTicker	76ersavg 48.2¢	$3.5K	$3.3K	-$236.71	62% 4022-2462 (6484)
RollAwayTheDewCTR	Pacersavg 51¢	$872.1	$949.05	+$76.95	52% 318-288 (606)
HI hi774cCTR	Pacersavg 50¢	$736.87	$817.93	+$81.06	52% 4656-4365 (9021)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR	Pacersavg 51¢	$510	$555	+$45	53% 5503-4847 (10350)
RN1	76ersavg 52.7¢	$382.69	$388.82	+$6.13	54% 55737-47824 (103561)
MO mooseborzoii	76ersavg 51¢	$305.02	$266.14	-$38.87	50% 1138-1132 (2270)
SL slimjoe	76ersavg 50.5¢	$180.18	$172.51	-$7.67	51% 6452-6117 (12569)
BO BoomLaLaCTR<$100	Pacersavg 47¢	$71.06	$83.82	+$12.77	53% 11467-9983 (21450)
BU BullishBarbARB<$100	Pacersavg 47¢	$76.52	$77.88	+$1.36	38% 848-1408 (2256)
└ Pacers leg	Pacersavg 47¢	$39.95	$47.18	+$7.23
└ 76ers leg	76ersavg 53¢	$36.57	$30.71	-$5.86
GH ghorrockARB<$100	Pacersavg 48.5¢	$76.68	$63.97	+$0.76	57% 13150-10021 (23171)
└ Pacers leg	Pacersavg 48.5¢	$43.98	$43.07	-$0.91
└ 76ers leg	76ersavg 50.5¢	$20.1	$20.9	+$1.67
FO forecastication4CTR<$100	Pacersavg 51¢	$43.86	$47.73	+$3.87	49% 1127-1157 (2284)
poshposhCTR<$100	Pacersavg 50¢	$33.51	$37.19	+$3.69	60% 9388-6379 (15767)
NO NotradecopyCTR<$100	Pacersavg 50¢	$19	$21.09	+$2.09	49% 3895-4091 (7986)
NA NatoAlfista<$100	76ersavg 52¢	$21.06	$18.02	-$3.04	50% 3716-3689 (7405)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Pacersavg 51¢	$9.69	$10.55	+$0.86	56% 6915-5530 (12445)
FO Forecastication2<$100	76ersavg 46¢	$5.06	$4.9	-$0.16	50% 6813-6827 (13640)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Pacersavg 52¢	$2.6	$2.78	+$0.18	47% 2056-2353 (4409)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Pacers

Invested

$7,942.86

Value

$8.3K

PnL

+$337.74

Record

54%

16871-14147 (31018)

RJW1

76ers

Invested

$9,076.32

Value

$7.8K

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

42%

94-130 (224)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR

Pacers

Invested

$6,100

Value

$6.7K

PnL

+$560

Record

47%

2409-2693 (5102)

SunlineTicker

76ers

Invested

$3,488.48

Value

$3.3K

PnL

-$236.71

Record

62%

4022-2462 (6484)

RollAwayTheDewCTR

Pacers

Invested

$872.1

Value

$949.05

PnL

+$76.95

Record

52%

318-288 (606)

hi774cCTR

Pacers

Invested

$736.87

Value

$817.93

PnL

+$81.06

Record

52%

4656-4365 (9021)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR

Pacers

Invested

$510

Value

$555

PnL

+$45

Record

53%

5503-4847 (10350)

RN1

76ers

Invested

$382.69

Value

$388.82

PnL

+$6.13

Record

54%

55737-47824 (103561)

mooseborzoii

76ers

Invested

$305.02

Value

$266.14

PnL

-$38.87

Record

50%

1138-1132 (2270)

slimjoe

76ers

Invested

$180.18

Value

$172.51

PnL

-$7.67

Record

51%

6452-6117 (12569)

BoomLaLaCTR<$100

Pacers

Invested

$71.06

Value

$83.82

PnL

+$12.77

Record

53%

11467-9983 (21450)

BullishBarbARB<$100

Pacers

Invested

$76.52

Value

$77.88

PnL

+$1.36

Record

38%

848-1408 (2256)

Both legs:

Pacers$39.9547¢+$7.23

76ers$36.5753¢-$5.86

ghorrockARB<$100

Pacers

Invested

$76.68

Value

$63.97

PnL

+$0.76

Record

57%

13150-10021 (23171)

Both legs:

Pacers$43.9848.5¢-$0.91

76ers$20.150.5¢+$1.67

forecastication4CTR<$100

Pacers

Invested

$43.86

Value

$47.73

PnL

+$3.87

Record

49%

1127-1157 (2284)

poshposhCTR<$100

Pacers

Invested

$33.51

Value

$37.19

PnL

+$3.69

Record

60%

9388-6379 (15767)

NotradecopyCTR<$100

Pacers

Invested

$19

Value

$21.09

PnL

+$2.09

Record

49%

3895-4091 (7986)

NatoAlfista<$100

76ers

Invested

$21.06

Value

$18.02

PnL

-$3.04

Record

50%

3716-3689 (7405)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Pacers

Invested

$9.69

Value

$10.55

PnL

+$0.86

Record

56%

6915-5530 (12445)

Forecastication2<$100

76ers

Invested

$5.06

Value

$4.9

PnL

-$0.16

Record

50%

6813-6827 (13640)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Pacers

Invested

$2.6

Value

$2.78

PnL

+$0.18

Record

47%

2056-2353 (4409)

Research grade

AvoidPacers at 47%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Pacers

11 of 18 top traders (61%)Underdog side (market favors 76ers 54%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Pacers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance48.7%

46.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$105.14

Max Loss

-$100.00

205.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.