Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold 76ers, while the market favors Pacers (54%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: 76ers (-5.5)

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold 76ers (80%) · 76ers at 47¢ · $74 held · ends Oct 28

76ers47¢Pacers53¢Ends Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

76ers

Consensus Traders

76ers 80%

Total Value

$73.88

Combined PnL

-$3.65

Research grade

Avoid76ers at 47%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

76ers

4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Pacers 54%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

76ers47%

Pacers54%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Pacers1 trader

Total Value$22.8

Total Shares40

Combined PnL+$0.4

76ers4 traders

Total Value$51.08

Total Shares117

Combined PnL-$4.05

Pacers — 20%76ers — 80%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FO Forecastication2<$100	Pacersavg 56¢	$22.4	$22.8	+$0.4	50% 6761-6761 (13522)
BA BayupatiCTR<$100	76ersavg 47¢	$23.5	$21.5	-$2	50% 187-184 (371)
SL slimjoeCTR<$100	76ersavg 47¢	$21.15	$19.35	-$1.8	51% 6435-6110 (12545)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	76ersavg 47¢	$9.4	$9.2	-$0.2	56% 6858-5498 (12356)
HRTradingCTR<$100	76ersavg 45¢	$1.08	$1.03	-$0.05	53% 2815-2479 (5294)

Forecastication2<$100

Pacers

Invested

$22.4

Value

$22.8

PnL

+$0.4

Record

50%

6761-6761 (13522)

BayupatiCTR<$100

76ers

Invested

$23.5

Value

$21.5

PnL

-$2

Record

50%

187-184 (371)

slimjoeCTR<$100

76ers

Invested

$21.15

Value

$19.35

PnL

-$1.8

Record

51%

6435-6110 (12545)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

76ers

Invested

$9.4

Value

$9.2

PnL

-$0.2

Record

56%

6858-5498 (12356)

HRTradingCTR<$100

76ers

Invested

$1.08

Value

$1.03

PnL

-$0.05

Record

53%

2815-2479 (5294)

Research grade

Avoid76ers at 47%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

76ers

4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Pacers 54%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that 76ers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance48.7%

46.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$105.14

Max Loss

-$100.00

205.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.