Spread: 76ers (-4.5)

3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold 76ers (75%) · 76ers at 53¢ · $517 held · ends Oct 28

76ers53¢Pacers47¢Ends Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

76ers

Consensus Traders

76ers 75%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$517.45

Combined PnL

-$6.38

Smart Money Entry

52¢ → 52.5¢

+1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

Avoid76ers at 53%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

76ers

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

76ers53%

Pacers48%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

76ers3 traders

Total Value$260.7

Total Shares497

Combined PnL+$3.35

Pacers1 trader

Total Value$168.96

Total Shares352

Combined PnL-$9.73

76ers — 75%Pacers — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888	76ersavg 52¢	$467.48	$229.67	+$2.9	58% 40747-29469 (70216)
FO Forecastication2CTR	Pacersavg 51.8¢	$178.68	$168.96	-$9.73	50% 6811-6825 (13636)
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100	76ersavg 44.7¢	$81.98	$87.8	+$5.75	58% 28119-20724 (48843)
└ 76ers leg	76ersavg 44.7¢	$42.47	$49.4	+$6.46
└ Pacers leg	Pacersavg 49.4¢	$39.51	$38.4	-$0.71
WO woshikd99<$100	76ersavg 52¢	$28.16	$28.43	+$0.27	50% 31-31 (62)
HRTrading<$100	76ersavg 48¢	$2.4	$2.6	+$0.18	53% 3042-2707 (5749)

VeryLucky888

76ers

Invested

$467.48

Value

$229.67

PnL

+$2.9

Record

58%

40747-29469 (70216)

Forecastication2CTR

Pacers

Invested

$178.68

Value

$168.96

PnL

-$9.73

Record

50%

6811-6825 (13636)

LeLynxMalynxARB<$100

76ers

Invested

$81.98

Value

$87.8

PnL

+$5.75

Record

58%

28119-20724 (48843)

Both legs:

76ers$42.4744.7¢+$6.46

Pacers$39.5149.4¢-$0.71

woshikd99<$100

76ers

Invested

$28.16

Value

$28.43

PnL

+$0.27

Record

50%

31-31 (62)

HRTrading<$100

76ers

Invested

$2.4

Value

$2.6

PnL

+$0.18

Record

53%

3042-2707 (5749)

Research grade

Avoid76ers at 53%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

76ers

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that 76ers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.7%

52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$82.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

182.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.