Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Pacers, while the market favors 76ers (59%). 5 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: 76ers (-3.5)
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Pacers (83%) · Pacers at 42¢ · $976 held · ends Oct 28
⚠️
Avoid
Pacers
6
Pacers 83%
$976.45
-$35.56
44.7¢ → 41.5¢
-7% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidPacers at 42%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors 76ers 59%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 96%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Pacers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TA takeormakeCTR | Pacersavg 45¢ | $684.8 | $646.76 | -$38.04 | 54% 3823-3297 (7120) |
 VeryLucky888 | 76ersavg 56¢ | $175.57 | $178.7 | +$3.14 | 58% 40754-29472 (70226) |
GO goldmynameCTR<$100 | Pacersavg 42¢ | $94.2 | $73.53 | +$0.87 | 60% 117-77 (194) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Pacersavg 45¢ | $37.87 | $39.03 | +$0.26 | 58% 28122-20727 (48849) |
BU BullishBarbCTR<$100 | Pacersavg 42¢ | $21.53 | $21.79 | +$0.26 | 38% 848-1408 (2256) |
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100 | Pacersavg 50¢ | $18.5 | $16.65 | -$2.04 | 50% 6813-6826 (13639) |
Invested
$684.8
Value
$646.76
PnL
-$38.04
Record
54%
3823-3297 (7120)
VeryLucky888Invested
$175.57
Value
$178.7
PnL
+$3.14
Record
58%
40754-29472 (70226)
Invested
$94.2
Value
$73.53
PnL
+$0.87
Record
60%
117-77 (194)
Invested
$37.87
Value
$39.03
PnL
+$0.26
Record
58%
28122-20727 (48849)
Invested
$21.53
Value
$21.79
PnL
+$0.26
Record
38%
848-1408 (2256)
Invested
$18.5
Value
$16.65
PnL
-$2.04
Record
50%
6813-6826 (13639)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
41.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.