Spread: 76ers (-2.5)
3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold 76ers (43%) · 76ers at 57¢ · $299 held · ends Oct 28
⚠️
Avoid
76ers
7
76ers 43%
$298.52
$5.63
53.3¢ → 57.5¢
+8% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
Avoid76ers at 57%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FO forecastication4 | 76ersavg 53¢ | $159 | $159 | +$0 | 49% 1112-1141 (2253) |
BO BoomLaLaCTR<$100 | Pacersavg 45¢ | $45 | $48 | +$3 | 53% 11428-9958 (21386) |
BA Bayupati<$100 | 76ersavg 57¢ | $30.78 | $30.78 | -$0 | 50% 187-184 (371) |
 RollAwayTheDewCTR<$100 | Pacersavg 48¢ | $29.98 | $29.98 | +$0 | 53% 301-270 (571) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | 76ersavg 50¢ | $16.5 | $18.69 | +$2.18 | 58% 27963-20593 (48556) |
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100 | Pacersavg 45¢ | $9.45 | $9.87 | +$0.42 | 50% 6761-6761 (13522) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Pacersavg 42¢ | $2.18 | $2.21 | +$0.03 | 60% 9216-6172 (15388) |
Invested
$159
Value
$159
PnL
+$0
Record
49%
1112-1141 (2253)
Invested
$45
Value
$48
PnL
+$3
Record
53%
11428-9958 (21386)
Invested
$30.78
Value
$30.78
PnL
-$0
Record
50%
187-184 (371)
RollAwayTheDewCTR<$100Invested
$29.98
Value
$29.98
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
301-270 (571)
Invested
$16.5
Value
$18.69
PnL
+$2.18
Record
58%
27963-20593 (48556)
Invested
$9.45
Value
$9.87
PnL
+$0.42
Record
50%
6761-6761 (13522)
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$2.18
Value
$2.21
PnL
+$0.03
Record
60%
9216-6172 (15388)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
57.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.