Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Pacers, while the market favors 76ers (61%). 2 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Spread: 76ers (-1.5)
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Pacers (67%) · Pacers at 39¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 28
⚠️
Avoid
Pacers
3
Pacers 67%
1 arb excluded
$1.6K
-$21.56
39¢ → 39¢
+0% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidPacers at 39%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors 76ers 61%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TA takeormakeCTR | Pacersavg 39¢ | $3.2K | $1.2K | -$16.03 | 54% 3813-3274 (7087) |
SU SunlineTickerCTR | Pacersavg 39¢ | $228.15 | $222.3 | -$5.85 | 62% 4014-2455 (6469) |
FO Forecastication2<$100 | 76ersavg 61¢ | $94.7 | $94.22 | +$0.31 | 50% 6790-6820 (13610) |
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100 | 76ersavg 52.4¢ | $68.76 | $74.27 | +$4.83 | 58% 28094-20712 (48806) |
| └ 76ers leg | 76ersavg 52.4¢ | $35.65 | $41.48 | +$5.15 | |
| └ Pacers leg | Pacersavg 38.4¢ | $33.11 | $32.79 | -$0.32 |
Invested
$3,205
Value
$1.2K
PnL
-$16.03
Record
54%
3813-3274 (7087)
Invested
$228.15
Value
$222.3
PnL
-$5.85
Record
62%
4014-2455 (6469)
Invested
$94.7
Value
$94.22
PnL
+$0.31
Record
50%
6790-6820 (13610)
Invested
$68.76
Value
$74.27
PnL
+$4.83
Record
58%
28094-20712 (48806)
Both legs:
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
39.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.