Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold 76ers, while the market favors Pacers (97%). 3 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Spread: 76ers (-11.5)
3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold 76ers (43%) · 76ers at 3.0¢ · $11K held · ended Oct 28
⚠️
Avoid
76ers
7
76ers 43%
1 arb excluded
$11.0K
-$861
48.4¢ → 3¢
-94% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
Avoid76ers at 3%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors Pacers 97%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | 76ersavg 49.1¢ | $5.3K | $3.8K | $-1.5K | 54% 16884-14152 (31036) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh | Pacersavg 50.2¢ | $2.6K | $3.2K | +$621.09 | 49% 559-583 (1142) |
 Nooserac | Pacersavg 59¢ | $1.9K | $2.2K | +$296.12 | 52% 5722-5285 (11007) |
AN Anon455ARB<$100 | 76ersavg 47¢ | $1.4K | $1.0K | -$325.44 | 56% 2651-2105 (4756) |
| └ 76ers leg | 76ersavg 47¢ | $1.2K | $820.16 | -$384.45 | |
| └ Pacers leg | Pacersavg 48.6¢ | $147.44 | $206.44 | +$59.01 | |
JU justaluckydude | Pacersavg 60.9¢ | $236.42 | $320.1 | +$83.68 | 54% 10476-9103 (19579) |
BU BullishBarbCTR | 76ersavg 36¢ | $223.42 | $211.01 | +$0 | 43% 2996-4016 (7012) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Pacersavg 46.2¢ | $66.95 | $94.23 | +$27.28 | 53% 3243-2909 (6152) |
TA takeormakeCTR | 76ersavg 50¢ | $428.5 | $59.99 | -$368.51 | 54% 3824-3298 (7122) |
Invested
$5,302.58
Value
$3.8K
PnL
$-1.5K
Record
54%
16884-14152 (31036)
Invested
$2,621.83
Value
$3.2K
PnL
+$621.09
Record
49%
559-583 (1142)
NooseracInvested
$1,941.24
Value
$2.2K
PnL
+$296.12
Record
52%
5722-5285 (11007)
Invested
$1,352.04
Value
$1.0K
PnL
-$325.44
Record
56%
2651-2105 (4756)
Both legs:
Invested
$236.42
Value
$320.1
PnL
+$83.68
Record
54%
10476-9103 (19579)
Invested
$223.42
Value
$211.01
PnL
+$0
Record
43%
2996-4016 (7012)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$66.95
Value
$94.23
PnL
+$27.28
Record
53%
3243-2909 (6152)
Invested
$428.5
Value
$59.99
PnL
-$368.51
Record
54%
3824-3298 (7122)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
3.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.