Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Pacers, while the market favors 76ers (81%). 5 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
1H Spread: 76ers (-2.5)
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Pacers (83%) · Pacers at 19¢ · $12K held · ended Oct 28
⚠️
Avoid
Pacers
6
Pacers 83%
$12.1K
$1.9K
42.9¢ → 19¢
-56% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidPacers at 19%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors 76ers 81%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR | Pacersavg 42.7¢ | $5.4K | $6.5K | +$1.1K | 50% 2466-2457 (4923) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Pacersavg 42.6¢ | $4.3K | $5.1K | +$841.63 | 58% 40871-29553 (70424) |
BA Bagwell306CTR | Pacersavg 42¢ | $210 | $255 | +$45 | 59% 4003-2838 (6841) |
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554CTR | Pacersavg 55¢ | $210.09 | $194.81 | -$15.28 | 53% 3109-2743 (5852) |
 RollAwayTheDew<$100 | 76ersavg 56¢ | $33.6 | $29.4 | -$4.2 | 52% 318-288 (606) |
SL slimjoeCTR<$100 | Pacersavg 42¢ | $1.68 | $2.04 | +$0.36 | 51% 6453-6117 (12570) |
Invested
$5,438.56
Value
$6.5K
PnL
+$1.1K
Record
50%
2466-2457 (4923)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$4,279.36
Value
$5.1K
PnL
+$841.63
Record
58%
40871-29553 (70424)
Invested
$210
Value
$255
PnL
+$45
Record
59%
4003-2838 (6841)
Invested
$210.09
Value
$194.81
PnL
-$15.28
Record
53%
3109-2743 (5852)
RollAwayTheDew<$100Invested
$33.6
Value
$29.4
PnL
-$4.2
Record
52%
318-288 (606)
Invested
$1.68
Value
$2.04
PnL
+$0.36
Record
51%
6453-6117 (12570)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
19.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.