76ers vs. Pacers
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold 76ers (57%) · 76ers at 59¢ · $7K held · ends Oct 28
⚠️
Avoid
76ers
7
76ers 57%
$6.8K
$15.07
57.2¢ → 58.5¢
+2% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
Avoid76ers at 59%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on 76ers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 scootergene | 76ersavg 57¢ | $3.4K | $3.4K | +$0 | 54% 368-310 (678) |
 RollAwayTheDew | 76ersavg 57.3¢ | $1.9K | $1.9K | +$35.96 | 53% 299-268 (567) |
PE peepeepooppoopCTR | Pacersavg 45¢ | $1.0K | $979.03 | -$11.38 | 52% 2005-1817 (3822) |
IC ic4cream | 76ersavg 58¢ | $567.82 | $558.03 | -$9.79 | 59% 2599-1830 (4429) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Pacersavg 43¢ | $25.55 | $25.32 | -$0.23 | 58% 27870-20510 (48380) |
DO DolphinBallerCTR<$100 | Pacersavg 40¢ | $6.67 | $7.17 | +$0.5 | 49% 85-88 (173) |
 HRTrading<$100 | 76ersavg 58¢ | $1.16 | $1.17 | +$0.01 | 54% 2609-2230 (4839) |
scootergeneInvested
$3,385.14
Value
$3.4K
PnL
+$0
Record
54%
368-310 (678)
RollAwayTheDewInvested
$1,853.48
Value
$1.9K
PnL
+$35.96
Record
53%
299-268 (567)
Invested
$1,024.56
Value
$979.03
PnL
-$11.38
Record
52%
2005-1817 (3822)
Invested
$567.82
Value
$558.03
PnL
-$9.79
Record
59%
2599-1830 (4429)
Invested
$25.55
Value
$25.32
PnL
-$0.23
Record
58%
27870-20510 (48380)
Invested
$6.67
Value
$7.17
PnL
+$0.5
Record
49%
85-88 (173)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$1.16
Value
$1.17
PnL
+$0.01
Record
54%
2609-2230 (4839)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.