76ers vs. Cavaliers

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold 76ers (56%) · 76ers at 57¢ · $10K held · ends Nov 7

76ers57¢Cavaliers43¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

76ers

Consensus Traders

76ers 56%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.6K

Combined PnL

-$266.98

Smart Money Entry

61.8¢ → 57.5¢

-7% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

Avoid76ers at 57%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

76ers

5 of 9 top traders (56%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

76ers57%

Cavaliers43%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

76ers5 traders

Total Value$7.5K

Total Shares12,295

Combined PnL-$243.57

Cavaliers4 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares3,457

Combined PnL-$23.41

76ers — 56%Cavaliers — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Mature

16h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on 76ers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whale76ers 50% · 2

Aligned

ctr76ers 75% · 8

Aligned

Top 100076ers 67% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GA Gaditima	76ersavg 61.6¢	$5.3K	$5.2K	-$58.93	48% 7382-8083 (15465)
nigiri99	76ersavg 65.5¢	$2.2K	$1.5K	-$245.21	46% 8594-10246 (18840)
AP AppleTiiimeCTR	Cavaliersavg 38.4¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$1.57	54% 68-57 (125)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	76ersavg 63¢	$2.2K	$652.2	+$20.24	48% 61189-65989 (127178)
└ 76ers leg	76ersavg 63¢	$468.26	$427.56	-$48.38
└ Cavaliers leg	Cavaliersavg 34.9¢	$184.31	$224.64	+$68.62
65 6512395314597884	76ersavg 54.6¢	$569.4	$636.33	+$66.93	51% 4768-4629 (9397)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Cavaliersavg 39¢	$111.49	$109.95	-$1.54	50% 21182-21443 (42625)
DA darkumbreon88<$100	76ersavg 65¢	$89.21	$83.72	-$5.49	64% 1961-1091 (3052)
GH ghorrockCTR	Cavaliersavg 50.5¢	$103.91	$80.24	-$23.66	58% 21213-15412 (36625)
PA Pan9X	76ersavg 62.8¢	$145.47	$77.86	-$0.87	54% 9740-8132 (17872)
OD OddstormARB<$100	Cavaliersavg 36.1¢	$73.76	$76.82	+$3.05	48% 7398-7930 (15328)
└ Cavaliers leg	Cavaliersavg 36.1¢	$52.99	$56.58	+$3.59
└ 76ers leg	76ersavg 63.1¢	$20.77	$20.23	-$0.54
BO BoomLaLaCTR<$100	Cavaliersavg 42¢	$18.1	$18.32	+$0.22	53% 12487-11218 (23705)

Gaditima

76ers

Invested

$5,304.93

Value

$5.2K

PnL

-$58.93

Record

48%

7382-8083 (15465)

nigiri99

76ers

Invested

$2,242.64

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$245.21

Record

46%

8594-10246 (18840)

AppleTiiimeCTR

Cavaliers

Invested

$1,127

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$1.57

Record

54%

68-57 (125)

38791873984189ARB<$100

76ers

Invested

$2,175.76

Value

$652.2

PnL

+$20.24

Record

48%

61189-65989 (127178)

Both legs:

76ers$468.2663¢-$48.38

Cavaliers$184.3134.9¢+$68.62

6512395314597884

76ers

Invested

$569.4

Value

$636.33

PnL

+$66.93

Record

51%

4768-4629 (9397)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Cavaliers

Invested

$111.49

Value

$109.95

PnL

-$1.54

Record

50%

21182-21443 (42625)

darkumbreon88<$100

76ers

Invested

$89.21

Value

$83.72

PnL

-$5.49

Record

64%

1961-1091 (3052)

ghorrockCTR

Cavaliers

Invested

$103.91

Value

$80.24

PnL

-$23.66

Record

58%

21213-15412 (36625)

Pan9X

76ers

Invested

$145.47

Value

$77.86

PnL

-$0.87

Record

54%

9740-8132 (17872)

OddstormARB<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

$73.76

Value

$76.82

PnL

+$3.05

Record

48%

7398-7930 (15328)

Both legs:

Cavaliers$52.9936.1¢+$3.59

76ers$20.7763.1¢-$0.54

BoomLaLaCTR<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

$18.1

Value

$18.32

PnL

+$0.22

Record

53%

12487-11218 (23705)

Research grade

Avoid76ers at 57%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

76ers

5 of 9 top traders (56%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Mature

16h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on 76ers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whale76ers 50% · 2

Aligned

ctr76ers 75% · 8

Aligned

Top 100076ers 67% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that 76ers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance59.7%

57.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$67.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

167.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.