Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (54%). 9 of 14 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

76ers vs. Bulls: O/U 239.5

9 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Over (64%) · Over at 46¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 8

Over46¢Under54¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 64%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.9K

Combined PnL

$19.33

Smart Money Entry

46.1¢ → 46¢

+0% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 46%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

9 of 14 top traders (64%)Underdog side (market favors Under 54%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over46%

Under54%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares1,805

Combined PnL+$18.48

Over9 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares2,541

Combined PnL+$0.86

Under — 36%Over — 64%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Underavg 54.4¢	$797.58	$695.58	-$0.77	48% 70249-75962 (146211)
└ Under leg	Underavg 54.4¢	$409.12	$409.84	-$1.97
└ Over leg	Overavg 45.3¢	$284.54	$285.74	+$1.2
nigiri99	Underavg 54.1¢	$617.27	$632.7	+$15.43	45% 14423-17722 (32145)
VI vibing123CTR	Overavg 46.2¢	$308.87	$303.94	-$4.93	52% 1733-1628 (3361)
RN1	Underavg 54¢	$293.95	$295.68	+$1.74	53% 70182-61748 (131930)
DV dv-pmCTR	Overavg 46¢	$259.44	$267.9	+$8.46	48% 3587-3956 (7543)
VE VenusianCTR	Overavg 46¢	$187.44	$185.41	-$2.04	48% 2117-2339 (4456)
LI LimousinCTR	Overavg 45¢	$165.07	$168.74	+$3.67	49% 2142-2260 (4402)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Overavg 47¢	$163.17	$157.96	-$5.21	47% 2072-2311 (4383)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Overavg 46¢	$73.11	$73.89	+$0.78	59% 52363-37089 (89452)
PA Pan9X<$100	Underavg 54¢	$74.12	$51.45	+$0.65	52% 27203-24713 (51916)
HO HomeRunHazard<$100	Underavg 54¢	$23.67	$23.89	+$0.22	54% 19973-16852 (36825)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 54.2¢	$16.71	$17.15	+$0.44	57% 24661-18268 (42929)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Overavg 45¢	$8.1	$8.28	+$0.18	48% 2081-2289 (4370)
NM NM-PCTR<$100	Overavg 47¢	$6.67	$6.64	-$0.03	57% 22335-16609 (38944)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Overavg 46¢	$2.3	$2.28	-$0.02	52% 9497-8605 (18102)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$797.58

Value

$695.58

PnL

-$0.77

Record

48%

70249-75962 (146211)

Both legs:

Under$409.1254.4¢-$1.97

Over$284.5445.3¢+$1.2

nigiri99

Under

Invested

$617.27

Value

$632.7

PnL

+$15.43

Record

45%

14423-17722 (32145)

vibing123CTR

Over

Invested

$308.87

Value

$303.94

PnL

-$4.93

Record

52%

1733-1628 (3361)

RN1

Under

Invested

$293.95

Value

$295.68

PnL

+$1.74

Record

53%

70182-61748 (131930)

dv-pmCTR

Over

Invested

$259.44

Value

$267.9

PnL

+$8.46

Record

48%

3587-3956 (7543)

VenusianCTR

Over

Invested

$187.44

Value

$185.41

PnL

-$2.04

Record

48%

2117-2339 (4456)

LimousinCTR

Over

Invested

$165.07

Value

$168.74

PnL

+$3.67

Record

49%

2142-2260 (4402)

MadridTimeCTR

Over

Invested

$163.17

Value

$157.96

PnL

-$5.21

Record

47%

2072-2311 (4383)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$73.11

Value

$73.89

PnL

+$0.78

Record

59%

52363-37089 (89452)

Pan9X<$100

Under

Invested

$74.12

Value

$51.45

PnL

+$0.65

Record

52%

27203-24713 (51916)

HomeRunHazard<$100

Under

Invested

$23.67

Value

$23.89

PnL

+$0.22

Record

54%

19973-16852 (36825)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$16.71

Value

$17.15

PnL

+$0.44

Record

57%

24661-18268 (42929)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$8.1

Value

$8.28

PnL

+$0.18

Record

48%

2081-2289 (4370)

NM-PCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$6.67

Value

$6.64

PnL

-$0.03

Record

57%

22335-16609 (38944)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.3

Value

$2.28

PnL

-$0.02

Record

52%

9497-8605 (18102)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 46%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

9 of 14 top traders (64%)Underdog side (market favors Under 54%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance48.2%

46.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$107.27

Max Loss

-$100.00

207.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.