Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Bulls, while the market favors 76ers (54%). 6 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: 76ers (-8.5)

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Bulls (67%) · Bulls at 47¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 8

76ers54¢Bulls46¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Bulls

Consensus Traders

Bulls 67%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.4K

Combined PnL

-$0.68

Smart Money Entry

46.8¢ → 46.5¢

-1% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidBulls at 47%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Bulls

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors 76ers 54%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

76ers54%

Bulls47%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Bulls6 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares2,556

Combined PnL-$3.26

76ers3 traders

Total Value$233.02

Total Shares426

Combined PnL+$2.59

Bulls — 67%76ers — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Bulls. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whale76ers 67% · 3

Diverging

ctr76ers 57% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedBulls 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Bulls 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
nigiri99CTR	Bullsavg 47¢	$745.89	$737.96	-$7.93	45% 14412-17706 (32118)
NM NM-PARB<$100	76ersavg 55¢	$558.29	$552.28	-$6.02	57% 22329-16593 (38922)
└ 76ers leg	76ersavg 55¢	$316.8	$308.16	-$8.64
└ Bulls leg	Bullsavg 46¢	$241.49	$244.12	+$2.62
GC GC-PARB<$100	76ersavg 53¢	$346.49	$349.99	+$3.5	57% 22219-16567 (38786)
└ 76ers leg	76ersavg 53¢	$185.5	$187.25	+$1.75
└ Bulls leg	Bullsavg 46¢	$160.99	$162.74	+$1.75
TA takeormake	76ersavg 53¢	$377	$201.7	+$1.89	52% 5499-5133 (10632)
VeryLucky888CTR	Bullsavg 46¢	$239.98	$187.84	+$3.2	59% 52299-37045 (89344)
QU QuentinChenCTR	Bullsavg 46¢	$125.12	$126.48	+$1.36	46% 353-407 (760)
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Bullsavg 46¢	$103.07	$105.38	+$2.31	54% 19942-16823 (36765)
└ Bulls leg	Bullsavg 46¢	$79.37	$80.23	+$0.86
└ 76ers leg	76ersavg 50.4¢	$23.7	$25.15	+$1.45
LI LightParadoxCTR	Bullsavg 48¢	$103.77	$104.9	+$1.13	48% 2039-2213 (4252)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Bullsavg 48¢	$62.79	$29.2	-$0.94	49% 2102-2190 (4292)
PA Pan9X<$100	76ersavg 51.7¢	$58.02	$22.68	+$0.62	52% 27099-24604 (51703)
38 38791873984189<$100	76ersavg 53¢	$16.16	$8.65	+$0.08	48% 70219-75923 (146142)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Bullsavg 48¢	$5	$2.33	-$0.08	52% 9470-8570 (18040)

nigiri99CTR

Bulls

Invested

$745.89

Value

$737.96

PnL

-$7.93

Record

45%

14412-17706 (32118)

NM-PARB<$100

76ers

Invested

$558.29

Value

$552.28

PnL

-$6.02

Record

57%

22329-16593 (38922)

Both legs:

76ers$316.855¢-$8.64

Bulls$241.4946¢+$2.62

GC-PARB<$100

76ers

Invested

$346.49

Value

$349.99

PnL

+$3.5

Record

57%

22219-16567 (38786)

Both legs:

76ers$185.553¢+$1.75

Bulls$160.9946¢+$1.75

takeormake

76ers

Invested

$377

Value

$201.7

PnL

+$1.89

Record

52%

5499-5133 (10632)

VeryLucky888CTR

Bulls

Invested

$239.98

Value

$187.84

PnL

+$3.2

Record

59%

52299-37045 (89344)

QuentinChenCTR

Bulls

Invested

$125.12

Value

$126.48

PnL

+$1.36

Record

46%

353-407 (760)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Bulls

Invested

$103.07

Value

$105.38

PnL

+$2.31

Record

54%

19942-16823 (36765)

Both legs:

Bulls$79.3746¢+$0.86

76ers$23.750.4¢+$1.45

LightParadoxCTR

Bulls

Invested

$103.77

Value

$104.9

PnL

+$1.13

Record

48%

2039-2213 (4252)

LimousinCTR<$100

Bulls

Invested

$62.79

Value

$29.2

PnL

-$0.94

Record

49%

2102-2190 (4292)

Pan9X<$100

76ers

Invested

$58.02

Value

$22.68

PnL

+$0.62

Record

52%

27099-24604 (51703)

38791873984189<$100

76ers

Invested

$16.16

Value

$8.65

PnL

+$0.08

Record

48%

70219-75923 (146142)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Bulls

Invested

Value

$2.33

PnL

-$0.08

Record

52%

9470-8570 (18040)

Research grade

AvoidBulls at 47%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Bulls

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors 76ers 54%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Bulls. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whale76ers 67% · 3

Diverging

ctr76ers 57% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedBulls 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Bulls 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Bulls wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance48.7%

46.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$105.14

Max Loss

-$100.00

205.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.