76ers vs. Bulls

7 of 19 top Polymarket traders hold 76ers (37%) · 76ers at 77¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 8

76ers77¢Bulls23¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

76ers

Consensus Traders

76ers 37%

Total Value

$8.3K

Combined PnL

-$76.57

Smart Money Entry

77.5¢ → 76.5¢

-1% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

Avoid76ers at 77%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

76ers

7 of 19 top traders (37%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

76ers77%

Bulls24%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

76ers7 traders

Total Value$7.4K

Total Shares9,532

Combined PnL-$95.2

Bulls12 traders

Total Value$858.97

Total Shares3,652

Combined PnL+$18.63

76ers — 37%Bulls — 63%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-54 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

37h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

13% of non-arb traders are on 76ers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrBulls 80% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Bulls 88% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
nigiri99	76ersavg 77.8¢	$5.3K	$5.3K	-$89.77	46% 8770-10464 (19234)
38 38791873984189	76ersavg 79¢	$893.76	$807.01	-$21.23	48% 63191-68207 (131398)
GA Gaditima	76ersavg 75.6¢	$655.5	$667.77	+$12.27	47% 7503-8319 (15822)
DA darkumbreon88	76ersavg 76.2¢	$507.73	$509.95	+$2.22	64% 2043-1136 (3179)
VeryLucky888CTR	Bullsavg 23¢	$392.94	$401.48	+$8.54	58% 47904-34520 (82424)
HO HomeRunHazard	76ersavg 76¢	$137.87	$138.78	+$0.91	54% 18557-15589 (34146)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Bullsavg 24¢	$133.06	$130.28	-$2.77	51% 38648-37820 (76468)
NM NM-PCTR	Bullsavg 23¢	$115	$117.5	+$2.5	64% 10183-5729 (15912)
GC GC-PCTR	Bullsavg 23¢	$115	$117.5	+$2.5	64% 10184-5783 (15967)
RollAwayTheDewCTR<$100	Bullsavg 23¢	$32.55	$33.25	+$0.71	54% 542-460 (1002)
SE sentrio<$100	76ersavg 76¢	$29.87	$30.06	+$0.2	50% 26504-26107 (52611)
AP AppleTiiimeCTR<$100	Bullsavg 16¢	$19.13	$29.29	+$10.16	54% 75-64 (139)
GH ghorrock<$100	76ersavg 76¢	$26.01	$21.39	+$0.2	58% 23579-16943 (40522)
OD OddstormCTR<$100	Bullsavg 25.9¢	$17.17	$12.19	-$4.98	48% 7452-7984 (15436)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Bullsavg 18¢	$5.94	$7.59	+$1.65	54% 10485-8797 (19282)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Bullsavg 23.9¢	$4.78	$4.7	-$0.08	49% 1800-1902 (3702)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Bullsavg 23.9¢	$3.06	$3.01	-$0.05	48% 1776-1912 (3688)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Bullsavg 23.9¢	$1.2	$1.19	-$0.02	49% 1844-1936 (3780)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Bullsavg 12¢	$0.52	$0.99	+$0.47	19% 2981-12794 (15775)

nigiri99

76ers

Invested

$5,345.32

Value

$5.3K

PnL

-$89.77

Record

46%

8770-10464 (19234)

38791873984189

76ers

Invested

$893.76

Value

$807.01

PnL

-$21.23

Record

48%

63191-68207 (131398)

Gaditima

76ers

Invested

$655.5

Value

$667.77

PnL

+$12.27

Record

47%

7503-8319 (15822)

darkumbreon88

76ers

Invested

$507.73

Value

$509.95

PnL

+$2.22

Record

64%

2043-1136 (3179)

VeryLucky888CTR

Bulls

Invested

$392.94

Value

$401.48

PnL

+$8.54

Record

58%

47904-34520 (82424)

HomeRunHazard

76ers

Invested

$137.87

Value

$138.78

PnL

+$0.91

Record

54%

18557-15589 (34146)

SnakeBallCTR

Bulls

Invested

$133.06

Value

$130.28

PnL

-$2.77

Record

51%

38648-37820 (76468)

NM-PCTR

Bulls

Invested

$115

Value

$117.5

PnL

+$2.5

Record

64%

10183-5729 (15912)

GC-PCTR

Bulls

Invested

$115

Value

$117.5

PnL

+$2.5

Record

64%

10184-5783 (15967)

RollAwayTheDewCTR<$100

Bulls

Invested

$32.55

Value

$33.25

PnL

+$0.71

Record

54%

542-460 (1002)

sentrio<$100

76ers

Invested

$29.87

Value

$30.06

PnL

+$0.2

Record

50%

26504-26107 (52611)

AppleTiiimeCTR<$100

Bulls

Invested

$19.13

Value

$29.29

PnL

+$10.16

Record

54%

75-64 (139)

ghorrock<$100

76ers

Invested

$26.01

Value

$21.39

PnL

+$0.2

Record

58%

23579-16943 (40522)

OddstormCTR<$100

Bulls

Invested

$17.17

Value

$12.19

PnL

-$4.98

Record

48%

7452-7984 (15436)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Bulls

Invested

$5.94

Value

$7.59

PnL

+$1.65

Record

54%

10485-8797 (19282)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Bulls

Invested

$4.78

Value

$4.7

PnL

-$0.08

Record

49%

1800-1902 (3702)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Bulls

Invested

$3.06

Value

$3.01

PnL

-$0.05

Record

48%

1776-1912 (3688)

VenusianCTR<$100

Bulls

Invested

$1.2

Value

$1.19

PnL

-$0.02

Record

49%

1844-1936 (3780)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Bulls

Invested

$0.52

Value

$0.99

PnL

+$0.47

Record

19%

2981-12794 (15775)

Research grade

Avoid76ers at 77%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

76ers

7 of 19 top traders (37%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-54 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

37h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

13% of non-arb traders are on 76ers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrBulls 80% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Bulls 88% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that 76ers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance78.4%

76.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$27.60

Max Loss

-$100.00

127.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.