76ers vs. Hornets: O/U 219.5
3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (43%) · Under at 72¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 31
⚠️
Avoid
Under
7
Under 43%
$1.6K
-$80.64
58.5¢ → 71.5¢
+22% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 72%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SU SunlineTicker | Underavg 58.4¢ | $1.2K | $1.1K | -$47.72 | 62% 4161-2553 (6714) |
TA takeormakeCTR | Overavg 38.5¢ | $426.01 | $370.35 | -$55.66 | 53% 4137-3598 (7735) |
 RollAwayTheDewCTR<$100 | Overavg 33¢ | $40.19 | $53.59 | +$13.4 | 53% 404-355 (759) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Overavg 37.2¢ | $63.1 | $49.88 | +$3.11 | 57% 13877-10647 (24524) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Overavg 33¢ | $16.5 | $22 | +$5.5 | 59% 46056-32360 (78416) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Underavg 60¢ | $19.8 | $20.69 | +$0.89 | 53% 4883-4360 (9243) |
FO Forecastication2<$100 | Underavg 68¢ | $10.88 | $10.88 | -$0.16 | 50% 7037-7035 (14072) |
Invested
$1,158.75
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$47.72
Record
62%
4161-2553 (6714)
Invested
$426.01
Value
$370.35
PnL
-$55.66
Record
53%
4137-3598 (7735)
RollAwayTheDewCTR<$100Invested
$40.19
Value
$53.59
PnL
+$13.4
Record
53%
404-355 (759)
Invested
$63.1
Value
$49.88
PnL
+$3.11
Record
57%
13877-10647 (24524)
Invested
$16.5
Value
$22
PnL
+$5.5
Record
59%
46056-32360 (78416)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$19.8
Value
$20.69
PnL
+$0.89
Record
53%
4883-4360 (9243)
Invested
$10.88
Value
$10.88
PnL
-$0.16
Record
50%
7037-7035 (14072)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
71.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.