Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (67%). 3 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

76ers vs. Hornets: O/U 217.5

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (43%) · Over at 33¢ · $6K held · ended Oct 31

Over33¢Under67¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 43%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.3K

Combined PnL

$1.2K

Smart Money Entry

47.3¢ → 33¢

-30% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 33%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 7 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors Under 67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over33%

Under67%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$4.9K

Total Shares12,026

Combined PnL+$939.18

Under4 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,821

Combined PnL+$213.15

Over — 43%Under — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 50% · 4

Aligned

ctrOver 50% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Under 63% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NooseracCTR	Overavg 48¢	$3.1K	$4.1K	+$1.0K	52% 5791-5380 (11171)
hammyandcheese	Underavg 43¢	$430	$590	+$160	55% 394-321 (715)
TA takeormakeCTR	Overavg 42.8¢	$543.75	$520.73	-$23.02	54% 4151-3604 (7755)
SU SunlineTickerCTR	Overavg 45¢	$340.2	$309.96	-$37.8	62% 4162-2553 (6715)
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 51.4¢	$260	$298.45	+$38.45	59% 46230-32531 (78761)
JU justaluckydudeARB<$100	Overavg 36.3¢	$213.54	$237.24	+$23.7	53% 10816-9436 (20252)
└ Under leg	Underavg 51.8¢	$106.72	$132.87	+$26.15
└ Over leg	Overavg 36.3¢	$106.82	$104.37	-$2.45
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Underavg 51.2¢	$140.96	$162.3	+$21.34	48% 959-1040 (1999)
HRTradingARB<$100	Underavg 56.5¢	$50.09	$57.61	+$7.52	53% 5014-4502 (9516)
└ Under leg	Underavg 56.5¢	$29.54	$32.91	+$3.38
└ Over leg	Overavg 30.8¢	$20.55	$24.7	+$4.15
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Underavg 59.6¢	$23.84	$17.2	-$6.64	58% 28900-21323 (50223)

NooseracCTR

Over

Invested

$3,100

Value

$4.1K

PnL

+$1.0K

Record

52%

5791-5380 (11171)

hammyandcheese

Under

Invested

$430

Value

$590

PnL

+$160

Record

55%

394-321 (715)

takeormakeCTR

Over

Invested

$543.75

Value

$520.73

PnL

-$23.02

Record

54%

4151-3604 (7755)

SunlineTickerCTR

Over

Invested

$340.2

Value

$309.96

PnL

-$37.8

Record

62%

4162-2553 (6715)

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$260

Value

$298.45

PnL

+$38.45

Record

59%

46230-32531 (78761)

justaluckydudeARB<$100

Over

Invested

$213.54

Value

$237.24

PnL

+$23.7

Record

53%

10816-9436 (20252)

Both legs:

Under$106.7251.8¢+$26.15

Over$106.8236.3¢-$2.45

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Under

Invested

$140.96

Value

$162.3

PnL

+$21.34

Record

48%

959-1040 (1999)

HRTradingARB<$100

Under

Invested

$50.09

Value

$57.61

PnL

+$7.52

Record

53%

5014-4502 (9516)

Both legs:

Under$29.5456.5¢+$3.38

Over$20.5530.8¢+$4.15

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Under

Invested

$23.84

Value

$17.2

PnL

-$6.64

Record

58%

28900-21323 (50223)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 33%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 7 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors Under 67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 50% · 4

Aligned

ctrOver 50% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Under 63% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance35.1%

33.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$184.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

284.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.