76ers vs. Hornets: O/U 216.5
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (57%) · Under at 64¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 31
⚠️
Avoid
Under
7
Under 57%
1 arb excluded
$2.0K
-$77.8
49.3¢ → 64¢
+30% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 64%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh | Underavg 49¢ | $989.61 | $989.61 | -$191.86 | 48% 959-1040 (1999) |
TA takeormakeCTR | Overavg 43.1¢ | $625.48 | $740.75 | +$115.27 | 54% 4151-3604 (7755) |
JU justaluckydudeARB<$100 | Overavg 39¢ | $137.38 | $154.84 | +$17.46 | 53% 10816-9436 (20252) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 39¢ | $76.44 | $99.96 | +$23.52 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 54.4¢ | $60.94 | $54.88 | -$6.06 | |
UP UpTheBlues<$100 | Underavg 50.3¢ | $52.3 | $50.96 | -$1.34 | 59% 46230-32531 (78761) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Underavg 60.5¢ | $22.18 | $21.88 | -$0.31 | 53% 5014-4502 (9516) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Overavg 41¢ | $12.19 | $15.18 | +$2.99 | 57% 13944-10725 (24669) |
HE Herdonia<$100 | Underavg 60¢ | $12.69 | $10.36 | -$2.33 | 54% 3362-2907 (6269) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Overavg 44¢ | $2.2 | $2.2 | -$0.23 | 52% 7347-6663 (14010) |
Invested
$989.61
Value
$989.61
PnL
-$191.86
Record
48%
959-1040 (1999)
Invested
$625.48
Value
$740.75
PnL
+$115.27
Record
54%
4151-3604 (7755)
Invested
$137.38
Value
$154.84
PnL
+$17.46
Record
53%
10816-9436 (20252)
Both legs:
Invested
$52.3
Value
$50.96
PnL
-$1.34
Record
59%
46230-32531 (78761)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$22.18
Value
$21.88
PnL
-$0.31
Record
53%
5014-4502 (9516)
Invested
$12.19
Value
$15.18
PnL
+$2.99
Record
57%
13944-10725 (24669)
Invested
$12.69
Value
$10.36
PnL
-$2.33
Record
54%
3362-2907 (6269)
Invested
$2.2
Value
$2.2
PnL
-$0.23
Record
52%
7347-6663 (14010)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
64.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.