76ers vs. Hornets: O/U 214.5

4 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Under (36%) · Under at 61¢ · $5K held · ended Oct 31

Over40¢Under60¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 36%

Total Value

$4.8K

Combined PnL

-$256.76

Smart Money Entry

47.2¢ → 60.5¢

+28% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 61%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 11 top traders (36%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over40%

Under61%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares5,800

Combined PnL-$197.84

Over7 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares4,119

Combined PnL-$58.93

Under — 36%Over — 64%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
heyboy800	Underavg 47¢	$2.7K	$2.5K	-$195.51	61% 951-598 (1549)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Overavg 44.4¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$24.29	54% 17179-14402 (31581)
TA takeormakeCTR	Overavg 46.2¢	$905.78	$814.49	-$91.29	53% 4137-3598 (7735)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Overavg 54¢	$180.84	$189.21	+$8.37	48% 948-1024 (1972)
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100	Overavg 46¢	$93.15	$95.18	+$2.02	50% 3882-3839 (7721)
RollAwayTheDew<$100	Underavg 55¢	$69.3	$66.78	-$2.52	53% 404-355 (759)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Overavg 45¢	$56.7	$57.62	+$0.92	58% 28818-21252 (50070)
JU justaluckydudeCTR<$100	Overavg 46¢	$45.08	$41.16	-$3.92	53% 10788-9397 (20185)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Overavg 45¢	$15.1	$15.77	+$0.67	50% 19237-19616 (38853)
HRTrading<$100	Underavg 48¢	$8.72	$9.59	+$0.87	53% 4883-4360 (9243)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 57¢	$9.71	$9.03	-$0.68	57% 13877-10647 (24524)

heyboy800

Under

Invested

$2,651.52

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$195.51

Record

61%

951-598 (1549)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Over

Invested

$1,020.14

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$24.29

Record

54%

17179-14402 (31581)

takeormakeCTR

Over

Invested

$905.78

Value

$814.49

PnL

-$91.29

Record

53%

4137-3598 (7735)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Over

Invested

$180.84

Value

$189.21

PnL

+$8.37

Record

48%

948-1024 (1972)

NatoAlfistaCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$93.15

Value

$95.18

PnL

+$2.02

Record

50%

3882-3839 (7721)

RollAwayTheDew<$100

Under

Invested

$69.3

Value

$66.78

PnL

-$2.52

Record

53%

404-355 (759)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$56.7

Value

$57.62

PnL

+$0.92

Record

58%

28818-21252 (50070)

justaluckydudeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$45.08

Value

$41.16

PnL

-$3.92

Record

53%

10788-9397 (20185)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$15.1

Value

$15.77

PnL

+$0.67

Record

50%

19237-19616 (38853)

HRTrading<$100

Under

Invested

$8.72

Value

$9.59

PnL

+$0.87

Record

53%

4883-4360 (9243)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$9.71

Value

$9.03

PnL

-$0.68

Record

57%

13877-10647 (24524)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 61%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 11 top traders (36%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance62.7%

60.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$59.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

159.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.