Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (54%). 5 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

76ers vs. Hornets: O/U 213.5

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Over (63%) · Over at 47¢ · $3K held · ends Oct 31

Over47¢Under53¢Ends Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 63%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.4K

Combined PnL

-$17.07

Smart Money Entry

46.8¢ → 46.5¢

-1% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 47%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 8 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors Under 54%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over47%

Under54%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over5 traders

Total Value$3.0K

Total Shares6,488

Combined PnL-$20.96

Under3 traders

Total Value$255.19

Total Shares446

Combined PnL+$3.89

Over — 63%Under — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (4 on Over) disagree here.

whaleOver 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 75% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Overavg 46.8¢	$2.8K	$2.8K	-$16.31	54% 17179-14402 (31581)
HE HerdoniaCTR	Overavg 47.3¢	$161.52	$159.65	-$1.87	54% 3357-2905 (6262)
RN1	Underavg 54¢	$135	$133.75	-$1.25	54% 56681-48879 (105560)
BA Bayupati<$100	Underavg 51¢	$81.95	$85.97	+$4.02	51% 227-222 (449)
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100	Overavg 48¢	$60.29	$59.79	-$0.5	58% 28788-21225 (50013)
└ Over leg	Overavg 48¢	$40.3	$39.06	-$1.24
└ Under leg	Underavg 51.6¢	$19.99	$20.73	+$0.74
RollAwayTheDewCTR<$100	Overavg 47¢	$47	$46.5	-$0.5	53% 404-355 (759)
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100	Overavg 49¢	$45.08	$42.78	-$2.3	50% 3877-3837 (7714)
VeryLucky888<$100	Underavg 52¢	$55.99	$35.47	+$1.12	58% 42027-30514 (72541)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Overavg 46¢	$2.3	$2.33	+$0.03	48% 2424-2645 (5069)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Over

Invested

$2,803.2

Value

$2.8K

PnL

-$16.31

Record

54%

17179-14402 (31581)

HerdoniaCTR

Over

Invested

$161.52

Value

$159.65

PnL

-$1.87

Record

54%

3357-2905 (6262)

RN1

Under

Invested

$135

Value

$133.75

PnL

-$1.25

Record

54%

56681-48879 (105560)

Bayupati<$100

Under

Invested

$81.95

Value

$85.97

PnL

+$4.02

Record

51%

227-222 (449)

LeLynxMalynxARB<$100

Over

Invested

$60.29

Value

$59.79

PnL

-$0.5

Record

58%

28788-21225 (50013)

Both legs:

Over$40.348¢-$1.24

Under$19.9951.6¢+$0.74

RollAwayTheDewCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$47

Value

$46.5

PnL

-$0.5

Record

53%

404-355 (759)

NatoAlfistaCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$45.08

Value

$42.78

PnL

-$2.3

Record

50%

3877-3837 (7714)

VeryLucky888<$100

Under

Invested

$55.99

Value

$35.47

PnL

+$1.12

Record

58%

42027-30514 (72541)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.3

Value

$2.33

PnL

+$0.03

Record

48%

2424-2645 (5069)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 47%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 8 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors Under 54%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (4 on Over) disagree here.

whaleOver 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 75% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance48.7%

46.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$105.14

Max Loss

-$100.00

205.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.