Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (56%). 3 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

76ers vs. Hornets: O/U 212.5

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Over (38%) · Over at 45¢ · $16K held · ended Oct 31

Over45¢Under55¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 38%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$15.6K

Combined PnL

-$153.82

Smart Money Entry

49.7¢ → 44.5¢

-10% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 45%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 8 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors Under 56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over45%

Under56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares2,802

Combined PnL-$141.41

Under5 traders

Total Value$748.05

Total Shares1,484

Combined PnL-$12.41

Over — 38%Under — 62%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Underavg 51.3¢	$13.7K	$13.6K	-$49.44	54% 17179-14402 (31581)
└ Over leg	Overavg 48¢	$6.3K	$8.0K	+$1.6K
└ Under leg	Underavg 51.3¢	$7.4K	$5.7K	$-1.7K
TA takeormakeCTR	Overavg 49.7¢	$1.4K	$1.2K	-$140.4	53% 4137-3598 (7735)
VeryLucky888	Underavg 50.8¢	$1.4K	$651.19	-$11.5	58% 42088-30563 (72651)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Underavg 51.1¢	$76.53	$77.12	+$0.59	58% 28818-21252 (50070)
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100	Overavg 50¢	$31.51	$30.56	-$0.95	50% 3882-3839 (7721)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 50¢	$23.88	$13.47	-$1.58	57% 13877-10647 (24524)
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	Overavg 49¢	$6.86	$6.79	-$0.07	59% 46056-32360 (78416)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Underavg 50.5¢	$5.05	$5.15	+$0.1	48% 2435-2653 (5088)
HRTrading<$100	Underavg 56¢	$1.12	$1.11	-$0.01	53% 4883-4360 (9243)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Under

Invested

$13,694.4

Value

$13.6K

PnL

-$49.44

Record

54%

17179-14402 (31581)

Both legs:

Over$6,323.0848¢+$1.6K

Under$7,371.3351.3¢$-1.7K

takeormakeCTR

Over

Invested

$1,352.79

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$140.4

Record

53%

4137-3598 (7735)

VeryLucky888

Under

Invested

$1,447.99

Value

$651.19

PnL

-$11.5

Record

58%

42088-30563 (72651)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Under

Invested

$76.53

Value

$77.12

PnL

+$0.59

Record

58%

28818-21252 (50070)

NatoAlfistaCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$31.51

Value

$30.56

PnL

-$0.95

Record

50%

3882-3839 (7721)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$23.88

Value

$13.47

PnL

-$1.58

Record

57%

13877-10647 (24524)

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$6.86

Value

$6.79

PnL

-$0.07

Record

59%

46056-32360 (78416)

ameisgoat11<$100

Under

Invested

$5.05

Value

$5.15

PnL

+$0.1

Record

48%

2435-2653 (5088)

HRTrading<$100

Under

Invested

$1.12

Value

$1.11

PnL

-$0.01

Record

53%

4883-4360 (9243)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 45%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 8 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors Under 56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance46.7%

44.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$113.95

Max Loss

-$100.00

214.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.