76ers vs. Hornets: O/U 211.5

6 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Under (38%) · Under at 54¢ · $65K held · ended Oct 31

Over47¢Under53¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 38%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$64.9K

Combined PnL

$205.89

Smart Money Entry

49¢ → 53.5¢

+9% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 54%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 16 top traders (38%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over47%

Under54%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under6 traders

Total Value$14.5K

Total Shares29,402

Combined PnL+$111.87

Over10 traders

Total Value$11.7K

Total Shares22,196

Combined PnL+$94.02

Under — 38%Over — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (6 on Under) disagree here.

whaleUnder 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Overavg 50.9¢	$36.1K	$37.0K	+$802.41	54% 17179-14402 (31581)
└ Over leg	Overavg 50.9¢	$19.7K	$24.4K	+$4.7K
└ Under leg	Underavg 48.4¢	$16.4K	$12.6K	$-3.9K
CH chongchong37	Underavg 49¢	$7.1K	$6.9K	-$144.44	54% 111-95 (206)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Underavg 51¢	$3.4K	$3.3K	-$31.91	48% 948-1024 (1972)
BA BayupatiCTR	Overavg 51¢	$3.0K	$3.1K	+$58.82	51% 228-222 (450)
AW awesoCTR	Overavg 49¢	$2.9K	$2.9K	-$30	48% 49-53 (102)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Overavg 51¢	$2.8K	$2.8K	+$47.13	59% 46056-32360 (78416)
FO Forecastication2	Underavg 46.1¢	$2.0K	$2.2K	+$271.39	50% 7037-7035 (14072)
PP ppku6298	Underavg 48.9¢	$5.1K	$2.0K	+$16.25	45% 91-112 (203)
RN1ARB<$100	Underavg 48.3¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$6.48	54% 56713-48922 (105635)
└ Under leg	Underavg 48.3¢	$552.29	$566.27	+$13.98
└ Over leg	Overavg 51.2¢	$512.5	$505	-$7.5
TA takeormakeCTR	Overavg 51¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$19.78	53% 4137-3598 (7735)
SU SunlineTickerCTR	Overavg 51¢	$712.98	$726.96	+$13.98	62% 4161-2553 (6714)
HE HerdoniaARB<$100	Underavg 48.2¢	$551.12	$561.45	+$10.33	54% 3357-2905 (6262)
└ Under leg	Underavg 48.2¢	$411.55	$422.93	+$11.38
└ Over leg	Overavg 50.9¢	$139.57	$138.52	-$1.05
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR	Overavg 51¢	$505.25	$515.16	+$9.91	47% 2526-2824 (5350)
latvian.demonCTR	Overavg 53¢	$529.52	$500	-$29.52	54% 703-593 (1296)
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100	Overavg 52¢	$97.11	$97.11	+$0	50% 3882-3839 (7721)
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100	Overavg 52.2¢	$92.21	$91.49	-$0.73	58% 28818-21252 (50070)
└ Under leg	Underavg 48.6¢	$45.2	$46.04	+$0.83
└ Over leg	Overavg 52.2¢	$47.01	$45.45	-$1.56
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Overavg 49.1¢	$29.47	$24.11	+$3.49	57% 13877-10647 (24524)
MI mishipolisCTR<$100	Overavg 48¢	$6.95	$7.38	+$0.43	50% 4551-4495 (9046)
HRTrading<$100	Underavg 45.4¢	$5.22	$5.81	+$0.59	53% 4883-4360 (9243)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Underavg 48¢	$2.4	$2.4	+$0	48% 2435-2653 (5088)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Over

Invested

$36,149.35

Value

$37.0K

PnL

+$802.41

Record

54%

17179-14402 (31581)

Both legs:

Over$19,714.2650.9¢+$4.7K

Under$16,435.0948.4¢$-3.9K

chongchong37

Under

Invested

$7,077.56

Value

$6.9K

PnL

-$144.44

Record

54%

111-95 (206)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Under

Invested

$3,379.25

Value

$3.3K

PnL

-$31.91

Record

48%

948-1024 (1972)

BayupatiCTR

Over

Invested

$3,000

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$58.82

Record

51%

228-222 (450)

awesoCTR

Over

Invested

$2,940

Value

$2.9K

PnL

-$30

Record

48%

49-53 (102)

UpTheBluesCTR

Over

Invested

$2,786.67

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$47.13

Record

59%

46056-32360 (78416)

Forecastication2

Under

Invested

$1,950.21

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$271.39

Record

50%

7037-7035 (14072)

ppku6298

Under

Invested

$5,091.4

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$16.25

Record

45%

91-112 (203)

RN1ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$1,064.79

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$6.48

Record

54%

56713-48922 (105635)

Both legs:

Under$552.2948.3¢+$13.98

Over$512.551.2¢-$7.5

takeormakeCTR

Over

Invested

$1,008.78

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$19.78

Record

53%

4137-3598 (7735)

SunlineTickerCTR

Over

Invested

$712.98

Value

$726.96

PnL

+$13.98

Record

62%

4161-2553 (6714)

HerdoniaARB<$100

Under

Invested

$551.12

Value

$561.45

PnL

+$10.33

Record

54%

3357-2905 (6262)

Both legs:

Under$411.5548.2¢+$11.38

Over$139.5750.9¢-$1.05

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR

Over

Invested

$505.25

Value

$515.16

PnL

+$9.91

Record

47%

2526-2824 (5350)

latvian.demonCTR

Over

Invested

$529.52

Value

$500

PnL

-$29.52

Record

54%

703-593 (1296)

NatoAlfistaCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$97.11

Value

$97.11

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

3882-3839 (7721)

LeLynxMalynxARB<$100

Over

Invested

$92.21

Value

$91.49

PnL

-$0.73

Record

58%

28818-21252 (50070)

Both legs:

Under$45.248.6¢+$0.83

Over$47.0152.2¢-$1.56

ghorrockCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$29.47

Value

$24.11

PnL

+$3.49

Record

57%

13877-10647 (24524)

mishipolisCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$6.95

Value

$7.38

PnL

+$0.43

Record

50%

4551-4495 (9046)

HRTrading<$100

Under

Invested

$5.22

Value

$5.81

PnL

+$0.59

Record

53%

4883-4360 (9243)

ameisgoat11<$100

Under

Invested

$2.4

Value

$2.4

PnL

+$0

Record

48%

2435-2653 (5088)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 54%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 16 top traders (38%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (6 on Under) disagree here.

whaleUnder 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.7%

53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$79.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

179.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.