76ers vs. Hornets: O/U 209.5

3 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Over (27%) · Over at 64¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 31

Over64¢Under36¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 27%

Total Value

$2.2K

Combined PnL

$122.9

Smart Money Entry

58.3¢ → 64¢

+10% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 64%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 11 top traders (27%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over64%

Under36%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares2,747

Combined PnL-$3.68

Under8 traders

Total Value$576.13

Total Shares1,412

Combined PnL+$126.58

Over — 27%Under — 73%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrUnder 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TA takeormake	Overavg 58.4¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	-$9.76	54% 4151-3604 (7755)
AN Anon455CTR	Underavg 25.2¢	$168	$279.56	+$111.56	55% 2972-2408 (5380)
JU justaluckydudeCTR<$100	Underavg 32.6¢	$65.79	$84.84	+$19.05	53% 10816-9436 (20252)
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	Underavg 36¢	$66.96	$66.96	+$0	59% 46230-32531 (78761)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Underavg 39.9¢	$50.13	$50.82	+$0.7	53% 5014-4502 (9516)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Underavg 45¢	$50.23	$46.88	-$3.35	48% 959-1040 (1999)
TO torta.techCTR<$100	Underavg 33¢	$39.93	$41.14	+$1.21	63% 8171-4892 (13063)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Overavg 56¢	$12.32	$15.84	+$3.52	58% 28900-21323 (50223)
SU SunlineTicker<$100	Overavg 55¢	$8.31	$10.88	+$2.57	62% 4162-2553 (6715)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Underavg 43¢	$20	$3.38	-$3.08	55% 7193-5787 (12980)
0X 0xe3eeb127d5763a6e4ad597f773f9d9c94d5176CTR<$100	Underavg 34¢	$2.06	$2.55	+$0.48	53% 6134-5384 (11518)

takeormake

Over

Invested

$1,581.56

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$9.76

Record

54%

4151-3604 (7755)

Anon455CTR

Under

Invested

$168

Value

$279.56

PnL

+$111.56

Record

55%

2972-2408 (5380)

justaluckydudeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$65.79

Value

$84.84

PnL

+$19.05

Record

53%

10816-9436 (20252)

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$66.96

Value

$66.96

PnL

+$0

Record

59%

46230-32531 (78761)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$50.13

Value

$50.82

PnL

+$0.7

Record

53%

5014-4502 (9516)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$50.23

Value

$46.88

PnL

-$3.35

Record

48%

959-1040 (1999)

torta.techCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$39.93

Value

$41.14

PnL

+$1.21

Record

63%

8171-4892 (13063)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Over

Invested

$12.32

Value

$15.84

PnL

+$3.52

Record

58%

28900-21323 (50223)

SunlineTicker<$100

Over

Invested

$8.31

Value

$10.88

PnL

+$2.57

Record

62%

4162-2553 (6715)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$20

Value

$3.38

PnL

-$3.08

Record

55%

7193-5787 (12980)

0xe3eeb127d5763a6e4ad597f773f9d9c94d5176CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.06

Value

$2.55

PnL

+$0.48

Record

53%

6134-5384 (11518)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 64%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 11 top traders (27%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrUnder 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance66.1%

64.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$51.20

Max Loss

-$100.00

151.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.