76ers vs. Hornets: O/U 207.5
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (20%) · Over at 90¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 31
⚠️
Avoid
Over
5
Over 20%
2 arb excluded
$1.7K
$245.07
Research grade
AvoidOver at 90%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TA takeormake | Overavg 54.2¢ | $1.1K | $1.3K | +$267.23 | 54% 4151-3604 (7755) |
AN Anon455CTR | Underavg 37¢ | $153.13 | $140.71 | -$12.42 | 55% 2972-2408 (5380) |
JU justaluckydudeARB<$100 | Overavg 49¢ | $84.28 | $98 | +$13.72 | 53% 10816-9436 (20252) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 49¢ | $48.02 | $64.68 | +$16.66 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 37¢ | $36.26 | $33.32 | -$2.94 | |
 HRTradingARB<$100 | Underavg 38.7¢ | $105.93 | $76.02 | -$38.51 | 53% 5014-4502 (9516) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 65.7¢ | $31.37 | $38.44 | -$1.53 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 38.7¢ | $74.56 | $37.58 | -$36.98 | |
TO torta.techCTR<$100 | Underavg 31¢ | $30.69 | $26.73 | -$3.96 | 63% 8171-4892 (13063) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100 | Underavg 49¢ | $18.58 | $12.89 | -$5.69 | 48% 959-1040 (1999) |
0X 0xe3eeb127d5763a6e4ad597f773f9d9c94d5176CTR<$100 | Underavg 36¢ | $1.8 | $1.7 | -$0.1 | 53% 6134-5384 (11518) |
Invested
$1,051.92
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$267.23
Record
54%
4151-3604 (7755)
Invested
$153.13
Value
$140.71
PnL
-$12.42
Record
55%
2972-2408 (5380)
Invested
$84.28
Value
$98
PnL
+$13.72
Record
53%
10816-9436 (20252)
Both legs:
HRTradingARB<$100Invested
$105.93
Value
$76.02
PnL
-$38.51
Record
53%
5014-4502 (9516)
Both legs:
Invested
$30.69
Value
$26.73
PnL
-$3.96
Record
63%
8171-4892 (13063)
Invested
$18.58
Value
$12.89
PnL
-$5.69
Record
48%
959-1040 (1999)
Invested
$1.8
Value
$1.7
PnL
-$0.1
Record
53%
6134-5384 (11518)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
89.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.