Spread: Hornets (-8.5)
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold 76ers (100%) · 76ers at 98¢ · $227 held · ended Oct 31
⚠️
Avoid
76ers
3
76ers 100%
$226.52
$15.3
65.4¢ → 98¢
+50% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
Avoid76ers at 98%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
JU justaluckydude | 76ersavg 60.5¢ | $126.08 | $147.48 | +$21.4 | 53% 10816-9436 (20252) |
 HRTrading<$100 | 76ersavg 77¢ | $53.44 | $52.02 | -$7.29 | 53% 5014-4502 (9516) |
FO Forecastication2<$100 | 76ersavg 76¢ | $25.84 | $27.03 | +$1.19 | 50% 7049-7061 (14110) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.