Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Hornets, while the market favors 76ers (98%). 2 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Hornets (-4.5)

2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Hornets (67%) · Hornets at 2.5¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 31

Hornets3¢76ers97¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Hornets

Consensus Traders

Hornets 67%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.8K

Combined PnL

-$89.63

Smart Money Entry

52.8¢ → 2.5¢

-95% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidHornets at 3%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Hornets

2 of 3 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors 76ers 98%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Hornets3%

76ers98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Hornets2 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares2,078

Combined PnL-$90.54

76ers1 trader

Total Value$22.56

Total Shares29

Combined PnL+$0.91

Hornets — 67%76ers — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TA takeormakeARB<$100	Hornetsavg 45.8¢	$1.5K	$1.7K	+$206.18	54% 4151-3604 (7755)
└ Hornets leg	Hornetsavg 45.8¢	$933.45	$1.3K	+$411.85
└ 76ers leg	76ersavg 52.5¢	$582.83	$377.16	-$205.67
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Hornetsavg 53.9¢	$1.1K	$982.46	-$111.76	48% 959-1040 (1999)
JU justaluckydudeARB<$100	76ersavg 52.8¢	$790.2	$979.75	+$189.55	53% 10816-9436 (20252)
└ 76ers leg	76ersavg 52.8¢	$494.49	$491.93	-$2.56
└ Hornets leg	Hornetsavg 28.8¢	$295.71	$487.83	+$192.12
poshposhCTR<$100	Hornetsavg 32¢	$33.95	$55.17	+$21.22	59% 10341-7332 (17673)
HRTrading<$100	76ersavg 53.1¢	$21.65	$22.56	+$0.91	53% 5014-4502 (9516)

takeormakeARB<$100

Hornets

Invested

$1,516.28

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$206.18

Record

54%

4151-3604 (7755)

Both legs:

Hornets$933.4545.8¢+$411.85

76ers$582.8352.5¢-$205.67

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Hornets

Invested

$1,094.22

Value

$982.46

PnL

-$111.76

Record

48%

959-1040 (1999)

justaluckydudeARB<$100

76ers

Invested

$790.2

Value

$979.75

PnL

+$189.55

Record

53%

10816-9436 (20252)

Both legs:

76ers$494.4952.8¢-$2.56

Hornets$295.7128.8¢+$192.12

poshposhCTR<$100

Hornets

Invested

$33.95

Value

$55.17

PnL

+$21.22

Record

59%

10341-7332 (17673)

HRTrading<$100

76ers

Invested

$21.65

Value

$22.56

PnL

+$0.91

Record

53%

5014-4502 (9516)

Research grade

AvoidHornets at 3%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Hornets

2 of 3 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors 76ers 98%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Hornets wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance3.7%

2.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2625.63

Max Loss

-$100.00

2725.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.