Spread: Hornets (-3.5)

2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold 76ers (40%) · 76ers at 98¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 31

Hornets2¢76ers98¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

76ers

Consensus Traders

76ers 40%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.2K

Combined PnL

$45.68

Smart Money Entry

44.5¢ → 97.5¢

+119% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

Avoid76ers at 98%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

76ers

2 of 5 top traders (40%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Hornets2%

76ers98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

76ers2 traders

Total Value$427.86

Total Shares746

Combined PnL+$51.89

Hornets3 traders

Total Value$126.14

Total Shares234

Combined PnL-$6.21

76ers — 40%Hornets — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TA takeormakeARB<$100	Hornetsavg 56.2¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	-$20.07	54% 4151-3604 (7755)
└ Hornets leg	Hornetsavg 56.2¢	$856.21	$1.1K	+$286.98
└ 76ers leg	76ersavg 41.2¢	$781.32	$474.27	-$307.05
JU justaluckydude	76ersavg 43.8¢	$358.27	$415.68	+$57.4	53% 10816-9436 (20252)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Hornetsavg 48.9¢	$123.99	$115.49	-$8.51	48% 959-1040 (1999)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	76ersavg 61¢	$17.69	$12.18	-$5.51	58% 28900-21323 (50223)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Hornetsavg 64¢	$6.68	$7.82	+$1.15	57% 13944-10725 (24669)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Hornetsavg 30¢	$1.68	$2.83	+$1.15	53% 5014-4502 (9516)

takeormakeARB<$100

Hornets

Invested

$1,637.53

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$20.07

Record

54%

4151-3604 (7755)

Both legs:

Hornets$856.2156.2¢+$286.98

76ers$781.3241.2¢-$307.05

justaluckydude

76ers

Invested

$358.27

Value

$415.68

PnL

+$57.4

Record

53%

10816-9436 (20252)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Hornets

Invested

$123.99

Value

$115.49

PnL

-$8.51

Record

48%

959-1040 (1999)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

76ers

Invested

$17.69

Value

$12.18

PnL

-$5.51

Record

58%

28900-21323 (50223)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Hornets

Invested

$6.68

Value

$7.82

PnL

+$1.15

Record

57%

13944-10725 (24669)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Hornets

Invested

$1.68

Value

$2.83

PnL

+$1.15

Record

53%

5014-4502 (9516)

Research grade

Avoid76ers at 98%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

76ers

2 of 5 top traders (40%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that 76ers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.6%

97.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.