Spread: Hornets (-2.5)

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold 76ers (71%) · 76ers at 57¢ · $16K held · ends Oct 31

Hornets43¢76ers57¢Ends Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

76ers

Consensus Traders

76ers 71%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$15.6K

Combined PnL

-$51.66

Smart Money Entry

58.2¢ → 57.5¢

-1% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

Avoid76ers at 57%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

76ers

5 of 7 top traders (71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Hornets43%

76ers57%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Hornets2 traders

Total Value$6.5K

Total Shares14,876

Combined PnL+$216.76

76ers5 traders

Total Value$9.0K

Total Shares15,922

Combined PnL-$268.42

Hornets — 29%76ers — 71%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on 76ers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleHornets 67% · 3

Diverging

ctr76ers 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-picked76ers 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 100076ers 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NooseracCTR	Hornetsavg 42¢	$6.0K	$6.2K	+$213.57	52% 5777-5366 (11143)
HO HomeRunHazard	76ersavg 58.5¢	$5.5K	$5.3K	-$186.62	54% 17179-14402 (31581)
HI hi774c	76ersavg 58¢	$2.7K	$2.7K	-$71.07	52% 4733-4453 (9186)
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542	76ersavg 57¢	$672.06	$666.16	-$5.9	47% 2516-2814 (5330)
VeryLucky888	76ersavg 57.5¢	$578.01	$312.44	-$4.17	58% 41980-30479 (72459)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Hornetsavg 42¢	$267.75	$270.94	+$3.19	59% 45889-32231 (78120)
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100	76ersavg 58.3¢	$132.82	$130.76	-$2.06	58% 28754-21204 (49958)
└ 76ers leg	76ersavg 58.3¢	$102.57	$99.44	-$3.13
└ Hornets leg	Hornetsavg 42¢	$30.25	$31.32	+$1.07
NA NatoAlfista<$100	76ersavg 58¢	$77.72	$77.05	-$0.67	50% 3874-3834 (7708)

NooseracCTR

Hornets

Invested

$5,979.99

Value

$6.2K

PnL

+$213.57

Record

52%

5777-5366 (11143)

HomeRunHazard

76ers

Invested

$5,456.39

Value

$5.3K

PnL

-$186.62

Record

54%

17179-14402 (31581)

hi774c

76ers

Invested

$2,748.16

Value

$2.7K

PnL

-$71.07

Record

52%

4733-4453 (9186)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542

76ers

Invested

$672.06

Value

$666.16

PnL

-$5.9

Record

47%

2516-2814 (5330)

VeryLucky888

76ers

Invested

$578.01

Value

$312.44

PnL

-$4.17

Record

58%

41980-30479 (72459)

UpTheBluesCTR

Hornets

Invested

$267.75

Value

$270.94

PnL

+$3.19

Record

59%

45889-32231 (78120)

LeLynxMalynxARB<$100

76ers

Invested

$132.82

Value

$130.76

PnL

-$2.06

Record

58%

28754-21204 (49958)

Both legs:

76ers$102.5758.3¢-$3.13

Hornets$30.2542¢+$1.07

NatoAlfista<$100

76ers

Invested

$77.72

Value

$77.05

PnL

-$0.67

Record

50%

3874-3834 (7708)

Research grade

Avoid76ers at 57%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

76ers

5 of 7 top traders (71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on 76ers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleHornets 67% · 3

Diverging

ctr76ers 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-picked76ers 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 100076ers 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that 76ers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance59.7%

57.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$67.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

167.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.