Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Hornets, while the market favors 76ers (55%). 8 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Hornets (-1.5)

8 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Hornets (73%) · Hornets at 46¢ · $4K held · ends Oct 31

Hornets46¢76ers54¢Ends Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Hornets

Consensus Traders

Hornets 73%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.4K

Combined PnL

-$15.27

Smart Money Entry

45.7¢ → 45.5¢

+0% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidHornets at 46%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Hornets

8 of 11 top traders (73%)Underdog side (market favors 76ers 55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Hornets46%

76ers55%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Hornets8 traders

Total Value$3.1K

Total Shares6,721

Combined PnL+$31.81

76ers3 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares2,438

Combined PnL-$47.08

Hornets — 73%76ers — 27%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Hornets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on 76ers) and the top 1000 (7 on Hornets) disagree here.

whaleHornets 100% · 1

Aligned

ctr76ers 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-picked76ers 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Hornets 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RollAwayTheDewCTR	Hornetsavg 45.8¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	+$24.57	53% 404-355 (759)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Hornetsavg 45.5¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$0.04	59% 45889-32231 (78120)
HI hi774c	76ersavg 55¢	$710.15	$677.87	-$32.28	52% 4733-4453 (9186)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989	76ersavg 54¢	$489.77	$476.16	-$13.6	53% 5636-4973 (10609)
NA NatoAlfistaCTR	Hornetsavg 46¢	$210.91	$217.79	+$6.88	50% 3874-3834 (7708)
BA Bagwell306	76ersavg 53¢	$127.2	$126	-$1.2	59% 4052-2864 (6916)
RN1CTR	Hornetsavg 45¢	$112.5	$116.25	+$3.75	54% 56642-48828 (105470)
HE HerdoniaCTR<$100	Hornetsavg 45.9¢	$63.52	$64.4	+$0.89	54% 3357-2905 (6262)
VeryLucky888CTR	Hornetsavg 45¢	$770	$51.4	-$4.44	58% 41980-30479 (72459)
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100	Hornetsavg 45¢	$42.3	$42.55	+$0.25	58% 28754-21204 (49958)
└ Hornets leg	Hornetsavg 45¢	$21.6	$21.84	+$0.24
└ 76ers leg	76ersavg 54.5¢	$20.7	$20.71	+$0.01
SL slimjoeCTR<$100	Hornetsavg 46¢	$2.86	$2.96	+$0.09	51% 6503-6163 (12666)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Hornetsavg 47¢	$2.35	$2.38	+$0.02	48% 2404-2633 (5037)

RollAwayTheDewCTR

Hornets

Invested

$1,607.04

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$24.57

Record

53%

404-355 (759)

UpTheBluesCTR

Hornets

Invested

$1,019.52

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$0.04

Record

59%

45889-32231 (78120)

hi774c

76ers

Invested

$710.15

Value

$677.87

PnL

-$32.28

Record

52%

4733-4453 (9186)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989

76ers

Invested

$489.77

Value

$476.16

PnL

-$13.6

Record

53%

5636-4973 (10609)

NatoAlfistaCTR

Hornets

Invested

$210.91

Value

$217.79

PnL

+$6.88

Record

50%

3874-3834 (7708)

Bagwell306

76ers

Invested

$127.2

Value

$126

PnL

-$1.2

Record

59%

4052-2864 (6916)

RN1CTR

Hornets

Invested

$112.5

Value

$116.25

PnL

+$3.75

Record

54%

56642-48828 (105470)

HerdoniaCTR<$100

Hornets

Invested

$63.52

Value

$64.4

PnL

+$0.89

Record

54%

3357-2905 (6262)

VeryLucky888CTR

Hornets

Invested

$770

Value

$51.4

PnL

-$4.44

Record

58%

41980-30479 (72459)

LeLynxMalynxARB<$100

Hornets

Invested

$42.3

Value

$42.55

PnL

+$0.25

Record

58%

28754-21204 (49958)

Both legs:

Hornets$21.645¢+$0.24

76ers$20.754.5¢+$0.01

slimjoeCTR<$100

Hornets

Invested

$2.86

Value

$2.96

PnL

+$0.09

Record

51%

6503-6163 (12666)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Hornets

Invested

$2.35

Value

$2.38

PnL

+$0.02

Record

48%

2404-2633 (5037)

Research grade

AvoidHornets at 46%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Hornets

8 of 11 top traders (73%)Underdog side (market favors 76ers 55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Hornets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on 76ers) and the top 1000 (7 on Hornets) disagree here.

whaleHornets 100% · 1

Aligned

ctr76ers 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-picked76ers 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Hornets 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Hornets wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance47.7%

45.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$109.45

Max Loss

-$100.00

209.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.