Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold 76ers, while the market favors Hornets (95%). 1 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: 76ers (-7.5)

1 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold 76ers (25%) · 76ers at 5.5¢ · $915 held · ended Oct 31

76ers5¢Hornets95¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

76ers

Consensus Traders

76ers 25%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$915.09

Combined PnL

$64.67

Research grade

Avoid76ers at 5%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

76ers

1 of 4 top traders (25%)Underdog side (market favors Hornets 95%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

76ers5%

Hornets95%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

76ers1 trader

Total Value$335.92

Total Shares884

Combined PnL+$61.88

Hornets3 traders

Total Value$105.09

Total Shares145

Combined PnL+$2.79

76ers — 25%Hornets — 75%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TA takeormakeARB<$100	Hornetsavg 65.5¢	$471.64	$474.08	+$2.44	54% 4151-3604 (7755)
└ 76ers leg	76ersavg 35.6¢	$230.92	$246.23	+$15.31
└ Hornets leg	Hornetsavg 65.5¢	$240.71	$227.84	-$12.87
GA gagarin59CTR	76ersavg 31¢	$274.04	$335.92	+$61.88	51% 701-671 (1372)
AN Anon455<$100	Hornetsavg 67¢	$66.33	$61.38	-$4.95	55% 2972-2408 (5380)
HRTrading<$100	Hornetsavg 78.3¢	$32.42	$40.61	+$8.19	53% 5014-4502 (9516)
UP UpTheBlues<$100	Hornetsavg 71¢	$3.55	$3.1	-$0.45	59% 46230-32531 (78761)

takeormakeARB<$100

Hornets

Invested

$471.64

Value

$474.08

PnL

+$2.44

Record

54%

4151-3604 (7755)

Both legs:

76ers$230.9235.6¢+$15.31

Hornets$240.7165.5¢-$12.87

gagarin59CTR

76ers

Invested

$274.04

Value

$335.92

PnL

+$61.88

Record

51%

701-671 (1372)

Anon455<$100

Hornets

Invested

$66.33

Value

$61.38

PnL

-$4.95

Record

55%

2972-2408 (5380)

HRTrading<$100

Hornets

Invested

$32.42

Value

$40.61

PnL

+$8.19

Record

53%

5014-4502 (9516)

UpTheBlues<$100

Hornets

Invested

$3.55

Value

$3.1

PnL

-$0.45

Record

59%

46230-32531 (78761)

Research grade

Avoid76ers at 5%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

76ers

1 of 4 top traders (25%)Underdog side (market favors Hornets 95%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that 76ers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance6.8%

5.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1381.11

Max Loss

-$100.00

1481.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.