Spread: 76ers (-5.5)
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Hornets (83%) · Hornets at 87¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 31
⚠️
Avoid
Hornets
6
Hornets 83%
$2.3K
$91.82
61.4¢ → 87¢
+42% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidHornets at 87%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SU SunlineTicker | Hornetsavg 61.4¢ | $1.3K | $1.6K | +$329.62 | 62% 4162-2553 (6715) |
TA takeormake | Hornetsavg 62.4¢ | $336.56 | $343.52 | +$6.97 | 54% 4151-3604 (7755) |
 RollAwayTheDewCTR | 76ersavg 39¢ | $500.61 | $231.05 | -$269.56 | 53% 407-358 (765) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100 | Hornetsavg 53¢ | $31.27 | $48.38 | +$17.11 | 48% 959-1040 (1999) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Hornetsavg 62.2¢ | $25.52 | $31.57 | +$6.05 | 58% 28900-21323 (50223) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Hornetsavg 59.9¢ | $9.28 | $10.92 | +$1.64 | 53% 5014-4502 (9516) |
Invested
$1,296.43
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$329.62
Record
62%
4162-2553 (6715)
Invested
$336.56
Value
$343.52
PnL
+$6.97
Record
54%
4151-3604 (7755)
RollAwayTheDewCTRInvested
$500.61
Value
$231.05
PnL
-$269.56
Record
53%
407-358 (765)
Invested
$31.27
Value
$48.38
PnL
+$17.11
Record
48%
959-1040 (1999)
Invested
$25.52
Value
$31.57
PnL
+$6.05
Record
58%
28900-21323 (50223)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$9.28
Value
$10.92
PnL
+$1.64
Record
53%
5014-4502 (9516)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
87.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.