Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold 76ers, while the market favors Hornets (85%). 4 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: 76ers (-4.5)

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold 76ers (57%) · 76ers at 15¢ · $50K held · ended Oct 31

76ers15¢Hornets85¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

76ers

Consensus Traders

76ers 57%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$49.6K

Combined PnL

$-7.4K

Smart Money Entry

45.1¢ → 15¢

-67% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

Avoid76ers at 15%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

76ers

4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors Hornets 85%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

76ers15%

Hornets85%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

76ers4 traders

Total Value$48.1K

Total Shares123,170

Combined PnL$-7.5K

Hornets3 traders

Total Value$282.74

Total Shares464

Combined PnL+$31.17

76ers — 57%Hornets — 43%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	76ersavg 45¢	$54.2K	$47.0K	$-7.2K	48% 959-1040 (1999)
TA takeormakeARB<$100	76ersavg 41.7¢	$1.5K	$1.3K	-$199.85	54% 4151-3604 (7755)
└ Hornets leg	Hornetsavg 57.2¢	$587.45	$801.06	+$213.61
└ 76ers leg	76ersavg 41.7¢	$874.87	$461.41	-$413.46
KingVon1CTR	76ersavg 51.3¢	$889.15	$675.41	-$213.74	57% 343-260 (603)
HRTradingCTR	76ersavg 44.4¢	$379.56	$335.01	-$44.55	53% 5014-4502 (9516)
UP UpTheBlues	Hornetsavg 49.6¢	$121.38	$149.15	+$27.77	59% 46230-32531 (78761)
JU justaluckydude	Hornetsavg 59.5¢	$116.62	$119.56	+$2.94	53% 10816-9436 (20252)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	76ersavg 40.3¢	$57.58	$55.77	-$1.81	58% 28900-21323 (50223)
SU SunlineTicker<$100	Hornetsavg 59¢	$13.57	$14.03	+$0.46	62% 4162-2553 (6715)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

76ers

Invested

$54,240.97

Value

$47.0K

PnL

$-7.2K

Record

48%

959-1040 (1999)

takeormakeARB<$100

76ers

Invested

$1,462.32

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$199.85

Record

54%

4151-3604 (7755)

Both legs:

Hornets$587.4557.2¢+$213.61

76ers$874.8741.7¢-$413.46

KingVon1CTR

76ers

Invested

$889.15

Value

$675.41

PnL

-$213.74

Record

57%

343-260 (603)

HRTradingCTR

76ers

Invested

$379.56

Value

$335.01

PnL

-$44.55

Record

53%

5014-4502 (9516)

UpTheBlues

Hornets

Invested

$121.38

Value

$149.15

PnL

+$27.77

Record

59%

46230-32531 (78761)

justaluckydude

Hornets

Invested

$116.62

Value

$119.56

PnL

+$2.94

Record

53%

10816-9436 (20252)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

76ers

Invested

$57.58

Value

$55.77

PnL

-$1.81

Record

58%

28900-21323 (50223)

SunlineTicker<$100

Hornets

Invested

$13.57

Value

$14.03

PnL

+$0.46

Record

62%

4162-2553 (6715)

Research grade

Avoid76ers at 15%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

76ers

4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors Hornets 85%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that 76ers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance16.7%

15.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$499.81

Max Loss

-$100.00

599.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.