Spread: 76ers (-3.5)

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Hornets (71%) · Hornets at 56¢ · $398 held · ends Oct 31

76ers44¢Hornets56¢Ends Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Hornets

Consensus Traders

Hornets 71%

Total Value

$397.86

Combined PnL

$5.24

Smart Money Entry

56.4¢ → 56.5¢

+0% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidHornets at 56%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Hornets

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

76ers44%

Hornets56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Hornets5 traders

Total Value$324.86

Total Shares542

Combined PnL+$5.57

76ers2 traders

Total Value$73.01

Total Shares169

Combined PnL-$0.34

Hornets — 71%76ers — 29%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Hornetsavg 56.9¢	$202.23	$204.32	+$2.09	54% 17179-14402 (31581)
SU SunlineTicker<$100	Hornetsavg 55¢	$72.05	$75.32	+$3.27	62% 4158-2553 (6711)
FF ff3364CTR<$100	76ersavg 44¢	$51.92	$51.33	-$0.59	50% 800-803 (1603)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Hornetsavg 56.9¢	$35.79	$35.85	+$0.06	58% 28695-21181 (49876)
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	76ersavg 42¢	$21.42	$21.68	+$0.25	59% 45816-32172 (77988)
HI hi774c<$100	Hornetsavg 56¢	$6.36	$6.53	+$0.17	52% 4731-4450 (9181)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Hornetsavg 57¢	$2.85	$2.82	-$0.03	48% 2393-2622 (5015)

HomeRunHazard

Hornets

Invested

$202.23

Value

$204.32

PnL

+$2.09

Record

54%

17179-14402 (31581)

SunlineTicker<$100

Hornets

Invested

$72.05

Value

$75.32

PnL

+$3.27

Record

62%

4158-2553 (6711)

ff3364CTR<$100

76ers

Invested

$51.92

Value

$51.33

PnL

-$0.59

Record

50%

800-803 (1603)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Hornets

Invested

$35.79

Value

$35.85

PnL

+$0.06

Record

58%

28695-21181 (49876)

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

76ers

Invested

$21.42

Value

$21.68

PnL

+$0.25

Record

59%

45816-32172 (77988)

hi774c<$100

Hornets

Invested

$6.36

Value

$6.53

PnL

+$0.17

Record

52%

4731-4450 (9181)

ameisgoat11<$100

Hornets

Invested

$2.85

Value

$2.82

PnL

-$0.03

Record

48%

2393-2622 (5015)

Research grade

AvoidHornets at 56%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Hornets

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Hornets wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance58.7%

56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$70.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

170.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.