Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold 76ers, while the market favors Hornets (56%). 8 of 15 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: 76ers (-2.5)

8 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold 76ers (53%) · 76ers at 45¢ · $28K held · ends Oct 31

76ers45¢Hornets55¢Ends Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

76ers

Consensus Traders

76ers 53%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$27.8K

Combined PnL

-$378.2

Smart Money Entry

46.3¢ → 44.5¢

-4% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

Avoid76ers at 45%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

76ers

8 of 15 top traders (53%)Underdog side (market favors Hornets 56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

76ers45%

Hornets56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

76ers8 traders

Total Value$15.1K

Total Shares33,579

Combined PnL-$538.67

Hornets7 traders

Total Value$7.0K

Total Shares12,511

Combined PnL+$160.48

76ers — 53%Hornets — 47%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 57%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

50% of non-arb traders are on 76ers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 57% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Hornets) and the top 1000 (13 on 76ers) disagree here.

whale76ers 100% · 2

Aligned

sharp76ers 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrHornets 55% · 11

Diverging

Hand-pickedHornets 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 100076ers 54% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SU SunlineTickerARB<$100	76ersavg 46¢	$5.8K	$5.8K	-$127	62% 4161-2553 (6714)
└ 76ers leg	76ersavg 46¢	$3.4K	$3.2K	-$185.63
└ Hornets leg	Hornetsavg 54.2¢	$2.4K	$2.5K	+$58.63
ComingBackCTR	76ersavg 47¢	$4.7K	$4.5K	-$251.45	61% 3943-2470 (6413)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	76ersavg 46.5¢	$4.3K	$4.1K	-$92.28	54% 17179-14402 (31581)
HI hi774cCTR	76ersavg 46¢	$4.0K	$3.9K	-$127.02	52% 4733-4453 (9186)
BA Bayupati	Hornetsavg 54.2¢	$3.6K	$3.7K	+$88.65	51% 227-221 (448)
RollAwayTheDew	Hornetsavg 54.3¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	+$44.92	53% 404-355 (759)
HE HerdoniaCTR	76ersavg 46.4¢	$1.4K	$1.3K	-$71.85	54% 3357-2905 (6262)
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR	76ersavg 44¢	$773.9	$782.69	+$8.79	47% 2516-2814 (5330)
FF ff3364	Hornetsavg 55¢	$584.65	$589.97	+$5.32	50% 800-803 (1603)
HRTrading	Hornetsavg 54¢	$435.53	$455.63	+$20.1	53% 4726-4250 (8976)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR	76ersavg 45¢	$450	$445	-$5	53% 5636-4973 (10609)
TO tomb2456	Hornetsavg 56¢	$133.89	$132.69	-$1.2	50% 292-288 (580)
NA NatoAlfista<$100	Hornetsavg 53¢	$44.52	$46.62	+$2.1	50% 3874-3834 (7708)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	76ersavg 44.6¢	$35.26	$35.16	-$0.1	58% 28754-21204 (49958)
SL slimjoe<$100	Hornetsavg 54¢	$21.06	$21.65	+$0.59	51% 6503-6163 (12666)
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	76ersavg 44¢	$20.68	$20.92	+$0.23	59% 45889-32231 (78120)

SunlineTickerARB<$100

76ers

Invested

$5,839.7

Value

$5.8K

PnL

-$127

Record

62%

4161-2553 (6714)

Both legs:

76ers$3,426.1946¢-$185.63

Hornets$2,413.5154.2¢+$58.63

ComingBackCTR

76ers

Invested

$4,727.26

Value

$4.5K

PnL

-$251.45

Record

61%

3943-2470 (6413)

HomeRunHazardCTR

76ers

Invested

$4,320

Value

$4.1K

PnL

-$92.28

Record

54%

17179-14402 (31581)

hi774cCTR

76ers

Invested

$3,982.87

Value

$3.9K

PnL

-$127.02

Record

52%

4733-4453 (9186)

Bayupati

Hornets

Invested

$3,584.89

Value

$3.7K

PnL

+$88.65

Record

51%

227-221 (448)

RollAwayTheDew

Hornets

Invested

$1,987.67

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$44.92

Record

53%

404-355 (759)

HerdoniaCTR

76ers

Invested

$1,381.48

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$71.85

Record

54%

3357-2905 (6262)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR

76ers

Invested

$773.9

Value

$782.69

PnL

+$8.79

Record

47%

2516-2814 (5330)

ff3364

Hornets

Invested

$584.65

Value

$589.97

PnL

+$5.32

Record

50%

800-803 (1603)

HRTrading

Hornets

Invested

$435.53

Value

$455.63

PnL

+$20.1

Record

53%

4726-4250 (8976)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR

76ers

Invested

$450

Value

$445

PnL

-$5

Record

53%

5636-4973 (10609)

tomb2456

Hornets

Invested

$133.89

Value

$132.69

PnL

-$1.2

Record

50%

292-288 (580)

NatoAlfista<$100

Hornets

Invested

$44.52

Value

$46.62

PnL

+$2.1

Record

50%

3874-3834 (7708)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

76ers

Invested

$35.26

Value

$35.16

PnL

-$0.1

Record

58%

28754-21204 (49958)

slimjoe<$100

Hornets

Invested

$21.06

Value

$21.65

PnL

+$0.59

Record

51%

6503-6163 (12666)

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

76ers

Invested

$20.68

Value

$20.92

PnL

+$0.23

Record

59%

45889-32231 (78120)

Research grade

Avoid76ers at 45%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

76ers

8 of 15 top traders (53%)Underdog side (market favors Hornets 56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 57%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

50% of non-arb traders are on 76ers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 57% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Hornets) and the top 1000 (13 on 76ers) disagree here.

whale76ers 100% · 2

Aligned

sharp76ers 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrHornets 55% · 11

Diverging

Hand-pickedHornets 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 100076ers 54% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that 76ers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance46.7%

44.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$113.95

Max Loss

-$100.00

214.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.