Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Hornets, while the market favors 76ers (52%). 12 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: 76ers (-1.5)

12 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Hornets (92%) · Hornets at 49¢ · $24K held · ends Oct 31

76ers52¢Hornets48¢Ends Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Hornets

Consensus Traders

Hornets 92%

Total Value

$23.9K

Combined PnL

-$1.77

Smart Money Entry

49.6¢ → 48.5¢

-2% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

AvoidHornets at 49%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Hornets

12 of 13 top traders (92%)Underdog side (market favors 76ers 52%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

76ers52%

Hornets49%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Hornets12 traders

Total Value$19.3K

Total Shares38,798

Combined PnL+$59.14

76ers1 trader

Total Value$4.6K

Total Shares9,258

Combined PnL-$60.91

Hornets — 92%76ers — 8%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MO monkeymashingkeyboardCTR	Hornetsavg 50¢	$12.5K	$12.6K	+$125	54% 604-519 (1123)
AY ay118	76ersavg 50.2¢	$4.6K	$4.6K	-$60.91	51% 25-24 (49)
scootergeneCTR	Hornetsavg 49¢	$2.9K	$2.9K	-$29.51	54% 374-322 (696)
SU SunlineTickerCTR	Hornetsavg 48.2¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	-$21.64	62% 4158-2553 (6711)
TO tomb2456CTR	Hornetsavg 49¢	$980	$970	-$10	50% 292-288 (580)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Hornetsavg 49¢	$712.15	$704.92	-$7.23	54% 17179-14402 (31581)
IC ic4creamCTR	Hornetsavg 49¢	$452.76	$448.14	-$4.62	59% 2641-1851 (4492)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR	Hornetsavg 48¢	$133.92	$135.32	+$1.4	53% 5632-4970 (10602)
poshposhCTR<$100	Hornetsavg 45¢	$57.68	$64.09	+$5.77	59% 10176-7169 (17345)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Hornetsavg 49.5¢	$48.87	$48.34	-$0.53	58% 28695-21181 (49876)
HE HerdoniaCTR<$100	Hornetsavg 49¢	$30.28	$30.59	+$0.31	54% 3357-2905 (6262)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100	Hornetsavg 48¢	$23.04	$23.28	+$0.24	53% 2174-1925 (4099)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Hornetsavg 48¢	$3.72	$3.68	-$0.04	53% 4633-4164 (8797)

monkeymashingkeyboardCTR

Hornets

Invested

$12,500

Value

$12.6K

PnL

+$125

Record

54%

604-519 (1123)

ay118

76ers

Invested

$4,643.58

Value

$4.6K

PnL

-$60.91

Record

51%

25-24 (49)

scootergeneCTR

Hornets

Invested

$2,891.68

Value

$2.9K

PnL

-$29.51

Record

54%

374-322 (696)

SunlineTickerCTR

Hornets

Invested

$1,411.97

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$21.64

Record

62%

4158-2553 (6711)

tomb2456CTR

Hornets

Invested

$980

Value

$970

PnL

-$10

Record

50%

292-288 (580)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Hornets

Invested

$712.15

Value

$704.92

PnL

-$7.23

Record

54%

17179-14402 (31581)

ic4creamCTR

Hornets

Invested

$452.76

Value

$448.14

PnL

-$4.62

Record

59%

2641-1851 (4492)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR

Hornets

Invested

$133.92

Value

$135.32

PnL

+$1.4

Record

53%

5632-4970 (10602)

poshposhCTR<$100

Hornets

Invested

$57.68

Value

$64.09

PnL

+$5.77

Record

59%

10176-7169 (17345)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Hornets

Invested

$48.87

Value

$48.34

PnL

-$0.53

Record

58%

28695-21181 (49876)

HerdoniaCTR<$100

Hornets

Invested

$30.28

Value

$30.59

PnL

+$0.31

Record

54%

3357-2905 (6262)

hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100

Hornets

Invested

$23.04

Value

$23.28

PnL

+$0.24

Record

53%

2174-1925 (4099)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Hornets

Invested

$3.72

Value

$3.68

PnL

-$0.04

Record

53%

4633-4164 (8797)

Research grade

AvoidHornets at 49%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Hornets

12 of 13 top traders (92%)Underdog side (market favors 76ers 52%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Hornets wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance50.7%

48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$97.04

Max Loss

-$100.00

197.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.