Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Hornets, while the market favors 76ers (53%). 6 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

76ers vs. Hornets

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Hornets (67%) · Hornets at 48¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 31

76ers53¢Hornets47¢Ends Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Hornets

Consensus Traders

Hornets 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.7K

Combined PnL

$27.7

Smart Money Entry

46.8¢ → 47.5¢

+2% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidHornets at 48%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Hornets

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors 76ers 53%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

76ers53%

Hornets48%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

76ers3 traders

Total Value$366.26

Total Shares614

Combined PnL-$1.56

Hornets6 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares2,245

Combined PnL+$29.26

76ers — 33%Hornets — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+13 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 50%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

63% of non-arb traders are on Hornets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 50% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleHornets 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpHornets 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrHornets 71% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedHornets 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Hornets 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
OD Oddstorm	76ersavg 52.3¢	$319.47	$318.89	-$0.58	38% 385-628 (1013)
FO Forecastication2ARB<$100	76ersavg 52¢	$291.74	$287.62	-$2.24	50% 6989-6984 (13973)
└ 76ers leg	76ersavg 52¢	$175.76	$175.76	-$1.69
└ Hornets leg	Hornetsavg 48.7¢	$115.98	$111.86	-$0.55
BO BoomLaLaCTR	Hornetsavg 47.2¢	$266.58	$270.89	+$4.31	53% 11546-10041 (21587)
RollAwayTheDewCTR	Hornetsavg 46¢	$253.74	$264.77	+$11.03	52% 377-342 (719)
HE HerdoniaCTR	Hornetsavg 46.1¢	$234.34	$244.08	+$9.74	54% 3326-2874 (6200)
RO rocky42019CTR	Hornetsavg 47¢	$194.94	$199.09	+$4.15	42% 1717-2340 (4057)
funnydayCTR<$100	Hornetsavg 49¢	$98	$94	+$0	50% 3904-3887 (7791)
GH ghorrock	76ersavg 53.3¢	$119.64	$45.1	-$0.91	57% 13705-10482 (24187)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100	Hornetsavg 47¢	$2.82	$2.85	+$0.03	53% 2164-1918 (4082)
VD VD721lsj4938Dk388<$100	76ersavg 53¢	$2.31	$2.27	-$0.07	55% 1735-1428 (3163)

Oddstorm

76ers

Invested

$319.47

Value

$318.89

PnL

-$0.58

Record

38%

385-628 (1013)

Forecastication2ARB<$100

76ers

Invested

$291.74

Value

$287.62

PnL

-$2.24

Record

50%

6989-6984 (13973)

Both legs:

76ers$175.7652¢-$1.69

Hornets$115.9848.7¢-$0.55

BoomLaLaCTR

Hornets

Invested

$266.58

Value

$270.89

PnL

+$4.31

Record

53%

11546-10041 (21587)

RollAwayTheDewCTR

Hornets

Invested

$253.74

Value

$264.77

PnL

+$11.03

Record

52%

377-342 (719)

HerdoniaCTR

Hornets

Invested

$234.34

Value

$244.08

PnL

+$9.74

Record

54%

3326-2874 (6200)

rocky42019CTR

Hornets

Invested

$194.94

Value

$199.09

PnL

+$4.15

Record

42%

1717-2340 (4057)

funnydayCTR<$100

Hornets

Invested

$98

Value

$94

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

3904-3887 (7791)

ghorrock

76ers

Invested

$119.64

Value

$45.1

PnL

-$0.91

Record

57%

13705-10482 (24187)

hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100

Hornets

Invested

$2.82

Value

$2.85

PnL

+$0.03

Record

53%

2164-1918 (4082)

VD721lsj4938Dk388<$100

76ers

Invested

$2.31

Value

$2.27

PnL

-$0.07

Record

55%

1735-1428 (3163)

Research grade

AvoidHornets at 48%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Hornets

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors 76ers 53%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+13 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 50%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

63% of non-arb traders are on Hornets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 50% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleHornets 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpHornets 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrHornets 71% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedHornets 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Hornets 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Hornets wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance49.7%

47.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$101.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

201.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.