Magic vs. Jazz: O/U 219.5
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (33%) · Under at 59¢ · $774 held · ends Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Under
6
Under 33%
$773.83
$1
58.6¢ → 59¢
+1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 59%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
33% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SU SunlineTicker | Underavg 58.7¢ | $544.08 | $546.58 | +$2.5 | 70% 1671-716 (2387) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Overavg 41.4¢ | $200.14 | $198.03 | -$2.11 | 48% 1310-1415 (2725) |
HO HomeRunHazard<$100 | Underavg 54¢ | $10.23 | $11.17 | +$0.95 | 57% 3221-2431 (5652) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Overavg 42¢ | $10.5 | $10.25 | -$0.25 | 48% 659-706 (1365) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Overavg 42¢ | $5.89 | $5.75 | -$0.14 | 54% 563-474 (1037) |
FO forecastication4CTR<$100 | Overavg 40¢ | $2 | $2.05 | +$0.05 | 18% 48-217 (265) |
Invested
$544.08
Value
$546.58
PnL
+$2.5
Record
70%
1671-716 (2387)
Invested
$200.14
Value
$198.03
PnL
-$2.11
Record
48%
1310-1415 (2725)
Invested
$10.23
Value
$11.17
PnL
+$0.95
Record
57%
3221-2431 (5652)
Invested
$10.5
Value
$10.25
PnL
-$0.25
Record
48%
659-706 (1365)
Invested
$5.89
Value
$5.75
PnL
-$0.14
Record
54%
563-474 (1037)
Invested
$2
Value
$2.05
PnL
+$0.05
Record
18%
48-217 (265)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
59.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.