Magic vs. Jazz: O/U 217.5
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (80%) · Under at 51¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Under
5
Under 80%
1 arb excluded
$2.4K
$1.86
50.9¢ → 50.5¢
-1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 51%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Overavg 49¢ | $1.0K | $1.0K | +$20.45 | 57% 3221-2429 (5650) |
KA KasonWong | Underavg 51¢ | $1.0K | $1.0K | -$20 | 23% 7-24 (31) |
38 38791873984189ARB<$100 | Underavg 50¢ | $231.18 | $233.51 | +$2.32 | 48% 1286-1384 (2670) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 50¢ | $166.5 | $168.17 | +$1.66 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 49¢ | $64.68 | $65.34 | +$0.66 | |
 VeryLucky888 | Underavg 50¢ | $125 | $126.25 | +$1.25 | 52% 441-414 (855) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Underavg 50¢ | $12.73 | $12.86 | +$0.13 | 54% 553-471 (1024) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Underavg 50¢ | $2.5 | $2.53 | +$0.02 | 31% 278-610 (888) |
Invested
$1,002.22
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$20.45
Record
57%
3221-2429 (5650)
Invested
$1,020
Value
$1.0K
PnL
-$20
Record
23%
7-24 (31)
Invested
$231.18
Value
$233.51
PnL
+$2.32
Record
48%
1286-1384 (2670)
Both legs:
VeryLucky888Invested
$125
Value
$126.25
PnL
+$1.25
Record
52%
441-414 (855)
Invested
$12.73
Value
$12.86
PnL
+$0.13
Record
54%
553-471 (1024)
Invested
$2.5
Value
$2.53
PnL
+$0.02
Record
31%
278-610 (888)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.