Magic vs. Jazz

2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Magic (40%) · Magic at 63¢ · $910 held · ends Nov 12

Magic63¢Jazz37¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

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⚠️

Avoid

Magic

Consensus Traders

Magic 40%

Total Value

$909.63

Combined PnL

$2.26

Smart Money Entry

62¢ → 62.5¢

+1% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidMagic at 63%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Magic

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Magic63%

Jazz38%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Magic2 traders

Total Value$663.64

Total Shares1,064

Combined PnL+$3.83

Jazz3 traders

Total Value$245.99

Total Shares653

Combined PnL-$1.57

Magic — 40%Jazz — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DA darkumbreon88	Magicavg 62¢	$567.56	$572.14	+$4.58	61% 921-592 (1513)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Jazzavg 38¢	$209.88	$207.12	-$2.76	30% 368-861 (1229)
HO HomeRunHazard<$100	Magicavg 62¢	$92.24	$91.5	-$0.74	57% 3221-2429 (5650)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Jazzavg 37.3¢	$34.9	$36.05	+$1.15	48% 654-705 (1359)
OD OddstormCTR<$100	Jazzavg 38¢	$2.79	$2.82	+$0.04	22% 33-116 (149)

darkumbreon88

Magic

Invested

$567.56

Value

$572.14

PnL

+$4.58

Record

61%

921-592 (1513)

LightParadoxCTR

Jazz

Invested

$209.88

Value

$207.12

PnL

-$2.76

Record

30%

368-861 (1229)

HomeRunHazard<$100

Magic

Invested

$92.24

Value

$91.5

PnL

-$0.74

Record

57%

3221-2429 (5650)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Jazz

Invested

$34.9

Value

$36.05

PnL

+$1.15

Record

48%

654-705 (1359)

OddstormCTR<$100

Jazz

Invested

$2.79

Value

$2.82

PnL

+$0.04

Record

22%

33-116 (149)

Research grade

AvoidMagic at 63%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Magic

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Magic wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance64.7%

62.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$54.66

Max Loss

-$100.00

154.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.