Magic vs. Raptors: O/U 229.5

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (67%) · Over at 82¢ · $6K held · ended Oct 30

Over82¢Under18¢Ended Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 67%

Total Value

$5.7K

Combined PnL

$568.93

Smart Money Entry

51.7¢ → 82¢

+59% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 82%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over82%

Under18%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over6 traders

Total Value$3.7K

Total Shares5,456

Combined PnL+$779.95

Under3 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares4,620

Combined PnL-$211.03

Over — 67%Under — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TA takeormake	Overavg 54¢	$2.1K	$2.9K	+$790.55	53% 4002-3482 (7484)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Underavg 47¢	$2.1K	$1.8K	-$218.47	48% 788-869 (1657)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989	Overavg 44¢	$440	$495	+$0	53% 5582-4951 (10533)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Underavg 44.8¢	$170.24	$178.53	+$8.29	59% 45474-31848 (77322)
VeryLucky888	Overavg 44¢	$121.57	$113.66	+$0.02	58% 41637-30243 (71880)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Overavg 44.7¢	$59.95	$66.33	-$0.99	58% 28489-21037 (49526)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Overavg 58¢	$57.42	$57.92	+$0.49	59% 30410-21120 (51530)
HRTrading<$100	Overavg 65.9¢	$58.52	$48.4	-$10.12	53% 4191-3790 (7981)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 46¢	$13.55	$5.4	-$0.84	57% 13671-10458 (24129)

takeormake

Over

Invested

$2,131.38

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$790.55

Record

53%

4002-3482 (7484)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Under

Invested

$2,051.97

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$218.47

Record

48%

788-869 (1657)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989

Over

Invested

$440

Value

$495

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

5582-4951 (10533)

UpTheBluesCTR

Under

Invested

$170.24

Value

$178.53

PnL

+$8.29

Record

59%

45474-31848 (77322)

VeryLucky888

Over

Invested

$121.57

Value

$113.66

PnL

+$0.02

Record

58%

41637-30243 (71880)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Over

Invested

$59.95

Value

$66.33

PnL

-$0.99

Record

58%

28489-21037 (49526)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Over

Invested

$57.42

Value

$57.92

PnL

+$0.49

Record

59%

30410-21120 (51530)

HRTrading<$100

Over

Invested

$58.52

Value

$48.4

PnL

-$10.12

Record

53%

4191-3790 (7981)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$13.55

Value

$5.4

PnL

-$0.84

Record

57%

13671-10458 (24129)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 82%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance83.7%

82.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$19.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

119.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.