Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (53%). 4 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Magic vs. Raptors: O/U 227.5
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Over (100%) · Over at 48¢ · $4K held · ends Oct 30
⚠️
Avoid
Over
4
Over 100%
1 arb excluded
$3.6K
-$18.63
47.7¢ → 47.5¢
+0% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 48%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Under 53%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BA BayupatiARB<$100 | Underavg 53¢ | $4.6K | $2.3K | -$23.18 | 51% 219-209 (428) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 53¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | +$11.59 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 48¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | -$34.78 | |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Overavg 47.5¢ | $720.7 | $713.26 | -$7.44 | 54% 17115-14330 (31445) |
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR | Overavg 48¢ | $480 | $470 | -$10 | 53% 5576-4935 (10511) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Overavg 48.5¢ | $58.57 | $57.2 | -$1.07 | 58% 28411-20972 (49383) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Overavg 49¢ | $5 | $2.33 | -$0.13 | 47% 2257-2545 (4802) |
Invested
$4,636.94
Value
$2.3K
PnL
-$23.18
Record
51%
219-209 (428)
Both legs:
Invested
$720.7
Value
$713.26
PnL
-$7.44
Record
54%
17115-14330 (31445)
Invested
$480
Value
$470
PnL
-$10
Record
53%
5576-4935 (10511)
Invested
$58.57
Value
$57.2
PnL
-$1.07
Record
58%
28411-20972 (49383)
Invested
$5
Value
$2.33
PnL
-$0.13
Record
47%
2257-2545 (4802)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
47.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.