Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (51%). 5 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Magic vs. Raptors: O/U 226.5
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (100%) · Over at 50¢ · $9K held · ends Oct 30
⚠️
Avoid
Over
5
Over 100%
1 arb excluded
$8.7K
-$409.36
50.9¢ → 49.5¢
-3% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 50%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Under 51%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 92%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MO monkeymashingkeyboardCTR | Overavg 51¢ | $10.0K | $4.8K | -$250 | 54% 589-507 (1096) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Overavg 50.7¢ | $6.1K | $3.0K | -$136.7 | 54% 17115-14330 (31445) |
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR | Overavg 51¢ | $510 | $490 | -$20 | 53% 5576-4935 (10511) |
OD OddstormCTR | Overavg 49¢ | $171.01 | $169.26 | -$1.74 | 38% 377-619 (996) |
38 38791873984189ARB<$100 | Overavg 51¢ | $171.2 | $166.49 | -$4.71 | 46% 7940-9367 (17307) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 51¢ | $108.63 | $103.3 | -$5.33 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 51¢ | $62.57 | $63.19 | +$0.61 | |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Overavg 50.5¢ | $30.8 | $29.89 | -$0.91 | 58% 28411-20972 (49383) |
Invested
$10,000
Value
$4.8K
PnL
-$250
Record
54%
589-507 (1096)
Invested
$6,129.5
Value
$3.0K
PnL
-$136.7
Record
54%
17115-14330 (31445)
Invested
$510
Value
$490
PnL
-$20
Record
53%
5576-4935 (10511)
Invested
$171.01
Value
$169.26
PnL
-$1.74
Record
38%
377-619 (996)
Invested
$171.2
Value
$166.49
PnL
-$4.71
Record
46%
7940-9367 (17307)
Both legs:
Invested
$30.8
Value
$29.89
PnL
-$0.91
Record
58%
28411-20972 (49383)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.