Magic vs. Raptors: O/U 224.5

2 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Over (20%) · Over at 93¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 30

Over93¢Under7¢Ended Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 20%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.7K

Combined PnL

$226.03

Smart Money Entry

53.1¢ → 92.5¢

+74% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 93%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 10 top traders (20%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over93%

Under8%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over2 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares1,471

Combined PnL+$247.6

Under8 traders

Total Value$532.1

Total Shares1,071

Combined PnL-$21.56

Over — 20%Under — 80%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TA takeormake	Overavg 53.1¢	$780.95	$1.0K	+$247.6	53% 4002-3482 (7484)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Underavg 47¢	$189.84	$198.09	+$8.25	48% 788-869 (1657)
TO torta.techCTR	Underavg 51¢	$150.94	$145.04	-$5.9	63% 8107-4853 (12960)
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Underavg 47.3¢	$126.36	$128.6	+$2.24	59% 45474-31848 (77322)
└ Under leg	Underavg 47.3¢	$81.81	$69.2	-$12.61
└ Over leg	Overavg 45¢	$44.55	$59.4	+$14.85
hammyandcheeseCTR	Underavg 56¢	$120.96	$120.96	+$0	56% 380-301 (681)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Underavg 39¢	$54.13	$30.58	-$23.55	53% 4191-3790 (7981)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Underavg 45.5¢	$15.93	$19.6	-$0.35	58% 28489-21037 (49526)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 41¢	$6.49	$7.38	+$0.89	57% 13671-10458 (24129)
0X 0xe3eeb127d5763a6e4ad597f773f9d9c94d5176CTR<$100	Underavg 53.7¢	$8.05	$7.35	-$0.7	53% 6124-5371 (11495)
MI mishipolisCTR<$100	Underavg 33¢	$3.3	$3.1	-$0.2	50% 4512-4453 (8965)
38 38791873984189<$100	Overavg 51¢	$1.04	$1.04	+$0	46% 8113-9541 (17654)

takeormake

Over

Invested

$780.95

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$247.6

Record

53%

4002-3482 (7484)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Under

Invested

$189.84

Value

$198.09

PnL

+$8.25

Record

48%

788-869 (1657)

torta.techCTR

Under

Invested

$150.94

Value

$145.04

PnL

-$5.9

Record

63%

8107-4853 (12960)

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Under

Invested

$126.36

Value

$128.6

PnL

+$2.24

Record

59%

45474-31848 (77322)

Both legs:

Under$81.8147.3¢-$12.61

Over$44.5545¢+$14.85

hammyandcheeseCTR

Under

Invested

$120.96

Value

$120.96

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

380-301 (681)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$54.13

Value

$30.58

PnL

-$23.55

Record

53%

4191-3790 (7981)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$15.93

Value

$19.6

PnL

-$0.35

Record

58%

28489-21037 (49526)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$6.49

Value

$7.38

PnL

+$0.89

Record

57%

13671-10458 (24129)

0xe3eeb127d5763a6e4ad597f773f9d9c94d5176CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$8.05

Value

$7.35

PnL

-$0.7

Record

53%

6124-5371 (11495)

mishipolisCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$3.3

Value

$3.1

PnL

-$0.2

Record

50%

4512-4453 (8965)

38791873984189<$100

Over

Invested

$1.04

Value

$1.04

PnL

+$0

Record

46%

8113-9541 (17654)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 93%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 10 top traders (20%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance93.8%

92.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6.61

Max Loss

-$100.00

106.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.