Spread: Raptors (-7.5)

2 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Magic (22%) · Magic at 57¢ · $3K held · ends Oct 30

Raptors43¢Magic57¢Ends Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Magic

Consensus Traders

Magic 22%

Total Value

$2.6K

Combined PnL

$9.35

Smart Money Entry

57¢ → 57.5¢

+1% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidMagic at 57%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Magic

2 of 9 top traders (22%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Raptors43%

Magic57%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Magic2 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares3,366

Combined PnL+$16.83

Raptors7 traders

Total Value$640.47

Total Shares1,507

Combined PnL-$7.48

Magic — 22%Raptors — 78%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on Magic. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleRaptors 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrRaptors 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedRaptors 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Raptors 75% · 4

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
QU QuentinChen	Magicavg 57¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$11.24	47% 316-359 (675)
SU SunlineTicker	Magicavg 57¢	$637.26	$642.85	+$5.59	62% 4127-2523 (6650)
OD OddstormCTR	Raptorsavg 43¢	$222.31	$219.72	-$2.58	38% 377-619 (996)
VeryLucky888CTR	Raptorsavg 43¢	$215	$212.5	-$2.5	58% 41493-30115 (71608)
RN1CTR	Raptorsavg 43¢	$107.5	$106.25	-$1.25	54% 56317-48472 (104789)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Raptorsavg 43¢	$60.2	$59.5	-$0.7	46% 7951-9381 (17332)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Raptorsavg 43¢	$23.65	$23.38	-$0.28	52% 3998-3640 (7638)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Raptorsavg 43¢	$17.2	$17	-$0.2	58% 28414-20974 (49388)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Raptorsavg 42¢	$2.1	$2.13	+$0.02	47% 2258-2548 (4806)

QuentinChen

Magic

Invested

$1,281.44

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$11.24

Record

47%

316-359 (675)

SunlineTicker

Magic

Invested

$637.26

Value

$642.85

PnL

+$5.59

Record

62%

4127-2523 (6650)

OddstormCTR

Raptors

Invested

$222.31

Value

$219.72

PnL

-$2.58

Record

38%

377-619 (996)

VeryLucky888CTR

Raptors

Invested

$215

Value

$212.5

PnL

-$2.5

Record

58%

41493-30115 (71608)

RN1CTR

Raptors

Invested

$107.5

Value

$106.25

PnL

-$1.25

Record

54%

56317-48472 (104789)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Raptors

Invested

$60.2

Value

$59.5

PnL

-$0.7

Record

46%

7951-9381 (17332)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Raptors

Invested

$23.65

Value

$23.38

PnL

-$0.28

Record

52%

3998-3640 (7638)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Raptors

Invested

$17.2

Value

$17

PnL

-$0.2

Record

58%

28414-20974 (49388)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Raptors

Invested

$2.1

Value

$2.13

PnL

+$0.02

Record

47%

2258-2548 (4806)

Research grade

AvoidMagic at 57%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Magic

2 of 9 top traders (22%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on Magic. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleRaptors 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrRaptors 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedRaptors 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Raptors 75% · 4

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Magic wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance59.7%

57.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$67.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

167.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.