Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Magic, while the market favors Raptors (51%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Raptors (-5.5)

3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Magic (75%) · Magic at 49¢ · $374 held · ends Oct 30

Raptors51¢Magic49¢Ends Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Magic

Consensus Traders

Magic 75%

Total Value

$373.98

Combined PnL

$0.13

Smart Money Entry

49¢ → 49¢

+0% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidMagic at 49%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Magic

3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Raptors 51%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Raptors51%

Magic49%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Magic3 traders

Total Value$359.7

Total Shares734

Combined PnL+$0.27

Raptors1 trader

Total Value$14.28

Total Shares28

Combined PnL-$0.14

Magic — 75%Raptors — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SU SunlineTickerCTR	Magicavg 49¢	$346.43	$346.43	+$0	62% 4127-2523 (6650)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Raptorsavg 52¢	$14.56	$14.28	-$0.14	58% 28411-20968 (49379)
HE HerdoniaCTR<$100	Magicavg 48¢	$8.02	$8.18	+$0.17	54% 3325-2874 (6199)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Magicavg 48¢	$4.98	$5.09	+$0.1	57% 13591-10418 (24009)

SunlineTickerCTR

Magic

Invested

$346.43

Value

$346.43

PnL

+$0

Record

62%

4127-2523 (6650)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Raptors

Invested

$14.56

Value

$14.28

PnL

-$0.14

Record

58%

28411-20968 (49379)

HerdoniaCTR<$100

Magic

Invested

$8.02

Value

$8.18

PnL

+$0.17

Record

54%

3325-2874 (6199)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Magic

Invested

$4.98

Value

$5.09

PnL

+$0.1

Record

57%

13591-10418 (24009)

Research grade

AvoidMagic at 49%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Magic

3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Raptors 51%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Magic wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance51.2%

49.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$95.12

Max Loss

-$100.00

195.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.