Spread: Raptors (-4.5)
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Raptors (33%) · Raptors at 55¢ · $704 held · ends Oct 30
⚠️
Avoid
Raptors
6
Raptors 33%
$704.45
$0.27
55.9¢ → 54.5¢
-2% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidRaptors at 55%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
33% of non-arb traders are on Raptors. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
QW QWUERHAIUKSJNFSNCF | Raptorsavg 55.9¢ | $467.16 | $451.44 | -$3.18 | 53% 387-337 (724) |
 RN1CTR | Magicavg 44.7¢ | $123.76 | $126.03 | +$2.27 | 54% 56317-48476 (104793) |
OD OddstormCTR<$100 | Magicavg 45¢ | $90 | $91 | +$1 | 38% 377-619 (996) |
HE HerdoniaCTR<$100 | Magicavg 45¢ | $24.96 | $25.24 | +$0.28 | 54% 3325-2874 (6199) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Magicavg 46¢ | $9.66 | $9.56 | -$0.11 | 58% 28416-20976 (49392) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Raptorsavg 54¢ | $1.17 | $1.18 | +$0.01 | 57% 13603-10423 (24026) |
Invested
$467.16
Value
$451.44
PnL
-$3.18
Record
53%
387-337 (724)
RN1CTRInvested
$123.76
Value
$126.03
PnL
+$2.27
Record
54%
56317-48476 (104793)
Invested
$90
Value
$91
PnL
+$1
Record
38%
377-619 (996)
Invested
$24.96
Value
$25.24
PnL
+$0.28
Record
54%
3325-2874 (6199)
Invested
$9.66
Value
$9.56
PnL
-$0.11
Record
58%
28416-20976 (49392)
Invested
$1.17
Value
$1.18
PnL
+$0.01
Record
57%
13603-10423 (24026)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.