Spread: Raptors (-3.5)
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Raptors (67%) · Raptors at 58¢ · $674 held · ends Oct 30
⚠️
Avoid
Raptors
6
Raptors 67%
$673.97
-$145.73
58.9¢ → 58¢
-2% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidRaptors at 58%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Raptorsavg 59¢ | $737.43 | $599.94 | -$137.49 | 54% 56315-48472 (104787) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Raptorsavg 58¢ | $45.21 | $37.42 | -$7.8 | 46% 7940-9367 (17307) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Raptorsavg 59¢ | $18.29 | $14.88 | -$3.41 | 58% 28411-20972 (49383) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Magicavg 34¢ | $7.11 | $10.87 | +$3.76 | 59% 9914-6887 (16801) |
HO HomeRunHazard<$100 | Raptorsavg 58¢ | $8.7 | $7.2 | -$1.5 | 54% 17115-14330 (31445) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Magicavg 42¢ | $2.95 | $3.65 | +$0.7 | 52% 3994-3637 (7631) |
RN1Invested
$737.43
Value
$599.94
PnL
-$137.49
Record
54%
56315-48472 (104787)
Invested
$45.21
Value
$37.42
PnL
-$7.8
Record
46%
7940-9367 (17307)
Invested
$18.29
Value
$14.88
PnL
-$3.41
Record
58%
28411-20972 (49383)
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$7.11
Value
$10.87
PnL
+$3.76
Record
59%
9914-6887 (16801)
Invested
$8.7
Value
$7.2
PnL
-$1.5
Record
54%
17115-14330 (31445)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$2.95
Value
$3.65
PnL
+$0.7
Record
52%
3994-3637 (7631)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
58.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.