Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (52%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Magic vs. Raptors: 1H O/U 115.5
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (60%) · Under at 48¢ · $7K held · ends Oct 30
⚠️
Avoid
Under
5
Under 60%
$6.7K
-$65.17
50.5¢ → 48¢
-5% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 48%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Over 52%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 95%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR | Underavg 50.8¢ | $3.7K | $3.6K | -$94.26 | 50% 2500-2488 (4988) |
TE texaskid | Overavg 50¢ | $2.7K | $2.7K | +$27.07 | 51% 393-381 (774) |
 RollAwayTheDew | Overavg 48.5¢ | $192.5 | $198.44 | +$0.02 | 52% 374-341 (715) |
 poshposhCTR | Underavg 46¢ | $162.2 | $169.25 | +$7.05 | 59% 9968-6940 (16908) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Underavg 49¢ | $243.12 | $113.06 | -$5.04 | 46% 8032-9481 (17513) |
Invested
$3,650.65
Value
$3.6K
PnL
-$94.26
Record
50%
2500-2488 (4988)
Invested
$2,667.32
Value
$2.7K
PnL
+$27.07
Record
51%
393-381 (774)
RollAwayTheDewInvested
$192.5
Value
$198.44
PnL
+$0.02
Record
52%
374-341 (715)
poshposhCTRInvested
$162.2
Value
$169.25
PnL
+$7.05
Record
59%
9968-6940 (16908)
Invested
$243.12
Value
$113.06
PnL
-$5.04
Record
46%
8032-9481 (17513)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
48.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.