Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Magic, while the market favors Raptors (66%). 5 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Magic vs. Raptors
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Magic (100%) · Magic at 34¢ · $434 held · ends Oct 30
⚠️
Avoid
Magic
5
Magic 100%
$433.72
-$31.68
37¢ → 34¢
-8% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidMagic at 34%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Raptors 66%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BU BullishBarbCTR | Magicavg 36¢ | $227.49 | $217.87 | -$9.62 | 43% 3532-4772 (8304) |
OD OddstormCTR | Magicavg 39¢ | $182.46 | $161.3 | -$21.16 | 38% 365-593 (958) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Magicavg 35.2¢ | $35.23 | $33.83 | -$0.74 | 57% 13381-10228 (23609) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Magicavg 34.5¢ | $15.87 | $15.64 | -$0.23 | 58% 28259-20841 (49100) |
 RollAwayTheDewCTR<$100 | Magicavg 34¢ | $5.01 | $5.08 | +$0.07 | 53% 363-319 (682) |
Invested
$227.49
Value
$217.87
PnL
-$9.62
Record
43%
3532-4772 (8304)
Invested
$182.46
Value
$161.3
PnL
-$21.16
Record
38%
365-593 (958)
Invested
$35.23
Value
$33.83
PnL
-$0.74
Record
57%
13381-10228 (23609)
Invested
$15.87
Value
$15.64
PnL
-$0.23
Record
58%
28259-20841 (49100)
RollAwayTheDewCTR<$100Invested
$5.01
Value
$5.08
PnL
+$0.07
Record
53%
363-319 (682)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
34.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.