Magic vs. Raptors: O/U 225.5
2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (29%) · Under at 58¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 28
⚠️
Avoid
Under
7
Under 29%
$1.8K
$23.75
56.9¢ → 58¢
+2% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 58%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 7 top traders (29%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BU BullishBarb | Underavg 57.8¢ | $830.78 | $830.89 | +$9.86 | 38% 848-1408 (2256) |
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR | Overavg 46¢ | $460 | $450 | -$15 | 53% 5499-4842 (10341) |
HO HomeRunHazard | Underavg 55¢ | $330 | $353.76 | +$23.76 | 54% 16863-14141 (31004) |
FO forecastication4CTR<$100 | Overavg 42¢ | $91.37 | $96.81 | +$5.44 | 49% 1127-1156 (2283) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Overavg 45¢ | $14.85 | $14.85 | -$0.17 | 58% 28120-20725 (48845) |
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100 | Overavg 45¢ | $5.4 | $5.4 | -$0.06 | 50% 6812-6826 (13638) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Overavg 46¢ | $2.3 | $2.23 | -$0.08 | 47% 2041-2343 (4384) |
Invested
$830.78
Value
$830.89
PnL
+$9.86
Record
38%
848-1408 (2256)
Invested
$460
Value
$450
PnL
-$15
Record
53%
5499-4842 (10341)
Invested
$330
Value
$353.76
PnL
+$23.76
Record
54%
16863-14141 (31004)
Invested
$91.37
Value
$96.81
PnL
+$5.44
Record
49%
1127-1156 (2283)
Invested
$14.85
Value
$14.85
PnL
-$0.17
Record
58%
28120-20725 (48845)
Invested
$5.4
Value
$5.4
PnL
-$0.06
Record
50%
6812-6826 (13638)
Invested
$2.3
Value
$2.23
PnL
-$0.08
Record
47%
2041-2343 (4384)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
58.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.