Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (56%). 7 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Magic vs. Raptors: O/U 224.5

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (78%) · Over at 45¢ · $9K held · ends Oct 28

Over45¢Under55¢Ends Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 78%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.5K

Combined PnL

-$199.87

Smart Money Entry

47.8¢ → 44.5¢

-7% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 45%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 9 top traders (78%)Underdog side (market favors Under 56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over45%

Under56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over7 traders

Total Value$7.5K

Total Shares15,958

Combined PnL-$199.99

Under2 traders

Total Value$31.57

Total Shares34

Combined PnL+$0.12

Over — 78%Under — 22%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 57%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

80% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 57% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 88% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 78% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Overavg 47.7¢	$6.8K	$3.2K	-$81.4	54% 16861-14141 (31002)
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR	Overavg 48¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	-$45	47% 2405-2688 (5093)
WO woshikd99CTR	Overavg 48¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$34.8	50% 31-31 (62)
RollAwayTheDewCTR	Overavg 48¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$22.78	52% 317-288 (605)
BU BullishBarbARB<$100	Overavg 48¢	$1.1K	$1.0K	-$39.63	38% 847-1408 (2255)
└ Over leg	Overavg 48¢	$804.96	$763.04	-$41.93
└ Under leg	Underavg 54¢	$248.34	$250.64	+$2.3
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR	Overavg 48¢	$480	$470	-$10	53% 5498-4842 (10340)
VeryLucky888CTR	Overavg 46.6¢	$523.74	$225	-$6.25	58% 40747-29469 (70216)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Underavg 53¢	$29.47	$28.89	-$0.01	58% 28119-20724 (48843)
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	Overavg 46¢	$22.08	$22.56	+$0.24	50% 6811-6825 (13636)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Underavg 51¢	$5	$2.68	+$0.13	47% 2038-2342 (4380)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Over

Invested

$6,811.81

Value

$3.2K

PnL

-$81.4

Record

54%

16861-14141 (31002)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR

Over

Invested

$1,440

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$45

Record

47%

2405-2688 (5093)

woshikd99CTR

Over

Invested

$1,113.6

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$34.8

Record

50%

31-31 (62)

RollAwayTheDewCTR

Over

Invested

$1,093.62

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$22.78

Record

52%

317-288 (605)

BullishBarbARB<$100

Over

Invested

$1,053.3

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$39.63

Record

38%

847-1408 (2255)

Both legs:

Over$804.9648¢-$41.93

Under$248.3454¢+$2.3

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR

Over

Invested

$480

Value

$470

PnL

-$10

Record

53%

5498-4842 (10340)

VeryLucky888CTR

Over

Invested

$523.74

Value

$225

PnL

-$6.25

Record

58%

40747-29469 (70216)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Under

Invested

$29.47

Value

$28.89

PnL

-$0.01

Record

58%

28119-20724 (48843)

Forecastication2CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$22.08

Value

$22.56

PnL

+$0.24

Record

50%

6811-6825 (13636)

ameisgoat11<$100

Under

Invested

Value

$2.68

PnL

+$0.13

Record

47%

2038-2342 (4380)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 45%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 9 top traders (78%)Underdog side (market favors Under 56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 57%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

80% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 57% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 88% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 78% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance46.7%

44.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$113.95

Max Loss

-$100.00

214.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.